Race for the House: Mid-Atlantic Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary analysis for DE, MD, and NJ
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
Polymarket bettors think Democrats have an 84% chance of flipping the House. These assessments should help give you a better idea of how things will shake out in November:
Previous:
INTRODUCTION
I am grouping Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey into a region called Mid-Atlantic; I separated New Jersey from this region in my 2024 election evaluations thanks to the tighter-than-usual finish requiring more detailed analysis. None of the three have backed a GOP presidential nominee since 1988, and as you may expect, are heavily gerrymandered from Democrats. Kamala Harris won their electoral votes 27 to 0 over President Trump. Here are my evaluations for the 2024 presidential races in the region:
Delaware has just one at-large seat due to its small population size. Maryland held off on a map that would guarantee them an 8-0 Democrat outcome, supposedly on a handshake agreement with the do-nothing Indiana Senate; despite Trump’s gains in New Jersey in 2024, Republicans have their work cut out for them with a very tough map cut generously for team blue.
Analysis
DELAWARE
Assessment: With Wilmington dominant in the northern end of the state, there is no race in the First State - despite the steady GOP registration gains.
DE-At Large: Sarah McBride (D), running for 2nd term, +15.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MARYLAND
Assessment: One of the most hopeless GOP presidential prospects on the map has a red landscape from east to west, but is overwhelmed by the D.C. sprawl.
MD-1: Andy Harris (R), running for 9th term, +22.1% margin in 2024 - represents the Eastern Shore and had his seat saved by the Indiana handshake - SAFE
MD-2: Johnny Olszewski (D), running for 2nd term, +18.7% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MD-3: Sarah Elfreth (D), running for 2nd term, +21.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MD-4: Glenn Ivey (D), running for 3rd term, +77.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MD-5: Open seat, Steny Hoyer (D) retiring after 23 terms, +35.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM
MD-6: April McClain Delaney (D), running for 2nd term, +6.4% margin in 2024; a leaner in a Republican year, but for 2026 - SAFE
MD-7: Kweisi Mfume (D), representing Baltimore and running for 5th term, +63.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MD-8: Jamie Raskin (D), horribly corrupt and running for 6th term, +56.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NEW JERSEY
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Captain K's Corner to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.