Race for the House: New England Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary analysis for CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
INTRODUCTION
The states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont make up New England, the least religious region of the United States and the most staunchly Democrat-voting bloc of states anywhere in America despite having all backed Ronald Reagan in 1984 and all but Massachusetts and Rhode Island behind George H. W. Bush in 1988. Kamala Harris won their electoral votes 32 to 1 over President Trump, who managed to snag the single electoral vote of Maine’s Second Congressional District. Here are my evaluations for the 2024 presidential races in the region:
New England has come under fire after Democrats complained about Texas’s redistricting efforts, mainly because they control 21 of 21 possible U.S. House seats (which makes Susan Collins the only Republican in Congress from New England). Is this uniform control set to be disrupted in 2026?
Analysis
CONNECTICUT
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