Race for the House: New England Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary analysis for CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
INTRODUCTION
The states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont make up New England, the least religious region of the United States and the most staunchly Democrat-voting bloc of states anywhere in America despite having all backed Ronald Reagan in 1984 and all but Massachusetts and Rhode Island behind George H. W. Bush in 1988. Kamala Harris won their electoral votes 32 to 1 over President Trump, who managed to snag the single electoral vote of Maine’s Second Congressional District. Here are my evaluations for the 2024 presidential races in the region:
New England has come under fire after Democrats complained about Texas’s redistricting efforts, mainly because they control 21 of 21 possible U.S. House seats (which makes Susan Collins the only Republican in Congress from New England). Is this uniform control set to be disrupted in 2026?
Analysis
CONNECTICUT
Assessment: Democrats certain to hold all 5 U.S. House seats in Connecticut, led by five incumbents running in a left-favorable midterm.
CT-1: John Larson (D), running for 15th term, +28.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE
CT-2: Joe Courtney (D), running for 11th term, +16.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
CT-3: Rosa DeLauro (D), poster child for term limits running for 19th term, +17.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
CT-4: James Himes (D), running for 10th term, +23.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
CT-5: Jahana Hayes (D), running for 5th term, +6.8% margin in 2024; her relatively lean margin from 2024 and razor close margin in 2022 would have this seat in the “leaner” or even “decisive” category in a red wave year, but her two-time opponent, George Logan, isn’t running and it’s not a right-favorable year - SAFE
MAINE
Assessment: Democrats certain to hold ME-1; ME-2 factors as one of the most important races in 2026, after being one of the most suspect in 2024.
Here is the safe seat:
ME-1: Chellie Pingree (D), running for 10th term, +22.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MASSACHUSETTS
Assessment: A perfect 9-0 Democrat gerrymander, which is not so hard to do given that no GOP presidential nominee has so much as carried a single county since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Many seats go uncontested.
MA-1: Richard Neal (D), running for 20th term, +25.1% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MA-2: James McGovern (D), running for 16th term, +37.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MA-3: Lori Trahan (D), running for 5th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE
MA-4: Jake Auchincloss (D), running for 4th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE
MA-5: Katherine Clark (D), running for 8th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE
MA-6: Open seat, Seth Moulton (D) retiring to run for U.S. Senate, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE DEM
MA-7: Ayanna Pressley (D), one of the most radical members of Congress and running for 5th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE
MA-8: Stephen Lynch (D), running for 14th term, +41.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
MA-9: William Keating (D), running for 9th term, +13.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Assessment: New England’s most competitive state offers some hope, but the 2026 midterm dynamics may complicate things. Because incumbent Chris Pappas is retiring in NH-1 to run for the U.S. Senate and liberal Republican John Sununu appears to be running a strong campaign, I am assessing NH-1 as a “leaner,” albeit a bit of a stretch for the GOP and hinging on how primaries turn out.
Here is the safe seat:
NH-2: Maggie Goodlander (D), running for 2nd term, +5.9% margin in 2024; this would likely be a decisive race in a right-favorable midterm, but her incumbency and the 2026 dynamics make it a bridge too far - SAFE
RHODE ISLAND
Assessment: Rhode Island skillfully divided its districts through Providence, but RI-2 was tight in 2022 as an open seat. Under the right circumstances (good GOP nominee and right election cycle) and with continued party registration shifting favoring Republicans, RI-2 could become a leaner.
For now:
RI-1: Gabe Amo (D), running for 3rd term, +31.1% margin in 2024 - SAFE
RI-2: Seth Magaziner (D), running for 3rd term, +16.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
VERMONT
Assessment: Vermont would vote for Pol Pot if he said mean things about Trump. Their at-large seat is safer than safe.
VT-At Large: Becca Balint (D), running for 3rd term, +32.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NEW ENGLAND SUMMARY
Democrat 19
Republican 0
Leaner 1 (NH-1)
Decisive 1 (ME-2)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on NH-1 and ME-2. Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Shove this into the face of RINOs afraid to redistrict! GOP needs to get Serious and follow your advice!
Captain New England is AWFuL...it's populated by too many Angry White Female Liberals!