Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures Required for a GOP Midterm Win

Real talk, and not a bunch of fairy tale nonsense

Announcement: Americans are distributing copies of my new bestseller, The American War on Election Corruption, to their state legislators and top officials. If you’d like to do likewise for your state or local leadership, please contact me at skeshel@protonmail.com.

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One of the greatest movies in recent memory is most certainly Top Gun: Maverick, which injected full-blooded Americana into our national bloodstream in the darkest days of the Biden regime. During briefings for the top secret mission (eerily resembling the June 2025 Iran strikes), the actions on target required for mission success were described as “Miracle #1” and “Miracle #2.” In other words, for the mission to succeed, two very difficult actions requiring speed and precision must be successfully undertaken.

The odds of mission success weren’t high, and that’s why the best pilots in the Navy were called in to take on the seemingly impossible. There, in the calm of the briefing room, the mission was technically possible, and if it were to be pulled off in real life, would have to meet strict standards. This is exactly how I see the 2026 midterm terrain, and unlike your standard clickbait available on all corners of the Internet, I have been warning about this since February 2025.

That was 14 months ago, before every doomer and black-piller had turned on the administration over something they heard their favorite podcaster say. If you ever doubt my consistency, I am giving you every opportunity to verify it yourself. Here are the facts:

The Republicans are likely to lose the House majority, and certainly would if the election were held today. Polymarket bettors are wagering heavily on the Democrats, so if you think the GOP is going to take it, there’s money to be made:

The good news is, there is time. The bad news is, the GOP decision makers can’t seem to figure out Miracles #1 and #2 - the center of gravity for which races are going to give a bare minimum 218-217 House majority to prevent at least two years of Democrat abuse of the American people and repeated impeachment efforts (which will strengthen our side over time, so stop worrying). Read the article embedded above to understand that midterm dynamics are as consistent as the sunrise, and have little to do with the President’s approval/disapproval (see Reagan, 63% approval in 1986 with Democrats still expanding the House majority).

These are the three main lines of effort required for Republicans to be in the best position possible to hold the line in Congress (especially the House):

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I. Focus, Focus, Focus

The best possible path for a GOP House majority hinges on two courses of action:

• Virginia redistricting referendum failing (looking good for a “No” victory based on early voting counts, but polls are mixed)

• Florida redistricting effort at end of month picking up as many as five GOP seats

Not to be a killjoy, but if Virginia gets away with carving up a 10-1 Democrat map, the math becomes pretty much impossible. You can thank the Indiana Senate, the Nebraska legislature, illegal maneuvering by the California legislature and executive, and bad court decisions for this.

That means, given the troubles with winning in midterms if you’re the president’s party, that we must laser focus on the 39 seats that can win it for us:

The Republicans have what appears to be a 200-196 edge in the 396 seats I consider safe for either side. When I lean 20 more than I feel confident on, I get Democrats up 209-207. That leaves 19 true toss-ups (as I see them today) to decide the majority. Neither side has a high ceiling nor a low floor thanks to the gerrymandering in all states taking so many playable seats off the table.

I will trickle out my analyses on these seats as nominees become known and we get a bit further down the timeline. We cannot afford to piss away our funds on seats we either have locked down or no chance at all to win.

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II. Buy the Midterms

This may be an underhanded tactic, but I don’t really care. I’m not interested in letting Democrats waltz into power even if the backstabbers in Mike Pence’s home state are fine with it. President Trump should figure out a way to buy the midterms that doesn’t place him in violation of any laws pertaining to unlawful influence (vote buying) over elections.

The President continues to talk about “tariff rebates” for Americans - why don’t we start off with a $2,000 rebate to celebrate our 250th birthday on July 4, 2026? Maybe it will depend on income; it will most definitely need to reward only citizens of our nation. Still, if we can rustle up loose cash for everyone for COVID-19 stimulus, I am sure there is a way to spread the wealth from our robust tariffs program.

The next step, once the 250th birthday gift distribution is the smash hit it will be, is to suggest as close to the start of “Election Season” as possible that an even better rebate will occur in early 2027, perhaps right around tax time. This will, of course, come with the hint that it will only happen if certain people don’t come to control Congress and do whatever they can to make sure Americans get stiffed.

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III. Shrewd As Snakes

Do you remember Eric Hovde, who “lost” his 2024 U.S. Senate race downballot from Trump’s statewide win of Wisconsin by 28,781 votes?

That is one of at least three Senate races ripped off by modern Democrat election tactics - but notice the 2.0% share of the vote held between candidates Anderson and Leager (71,066 total votes). Do you have any guesses who helped make sure they got on the ballot? I do.

Republicans don’t usually have the instincts to spend money and energy planting fake Green Party candidates on the ballot to siphon away 1-2% of would-be Democrat vote totals in races that are going to be decided on a knife’s edge. Perhaps it is time we start looking at the races through the eyes of what the enemy does to us.

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CONCLUSION

“Red wave” isn’t going to happen. We need to get realistic in pursuing the best way for Republicans to hold majorities in the always-challenging midterm environment. Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is called “insanity.” Unfortunately, that is exactly what we are doing.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.