Talking Sense on Pennsylvania Registrations + New Administrative Notes

Putting out a kitchen fire in Pennsylvania before it spreads to the living quarters and updating all readers on some streamlining at Captain K's Corner.

With a major focus on Pennsylvania in yesterday’s piece, what better way to kick off May than to extinguish a few smoldering embers floating around online from MAGA enthusiasts about the Keystone State?

Here’s the deal: after a decade of seemingly non-stop GOP voter registration gains in Pennsylvania, the Democrats have made up voter registrations in two of the past three weekly Secretary of State updates. The update posted Monday showed Democrats expanding their lead on the full (not just active) voter roll from +175,341 to +176,523 net. This has (inaccurately) led to some online pundits hinting at a building blue wave in the Midwest and the return of Pennsylvania to Democrat fealty.

You know I have my opinions but go for accuracy above all – that’s what helped me nail the 2024 map. So what is the deal? Should we worry?

The answer to the why portion of this is simple. Pennsylvania has a primary for its municipal elections on May 20, with the last day to register to vote in it scheduled for May 5. The elections themselves are November 4. What is happening now is a micro-adjustment of voters either newly registering or changing parties to select their preferred primary ballot. For instance, if you’re a Republican stuck in Philadelphia County, you may register as a Democrat to have a voice in the race since it’s a near-certainty you’re going to be stuck living under Democrat rule. 64 of 67 counties shifted Republican by registration between 2020 and 2024 – Delaware and Montgomery in the southeast, and Cumberland (just barely) in central Pennsylvania. In previous cycles, Chester was another county that would drift left as urban voters pushed out further into the suburban counties.

What has been the impact?

Even in this net negative week for the GOP, 45 of 67 counties increased their GOP registration advantage (or shrank their Democrat advantage) by raw number. In 10 of the counties with Democrats making raw gains, the shift was 10 or fewer registrations – akin to statistical noise. Here were the most notable shifts to the left sustained last week:

· Allegheny (-332)

· Bucks (-143)

· Chester (-108)

· Delaware (-107)

· Montgomery (-362)

· Philadelphia (-673)

This shifting amounts to a mini-voter drive that, with a GOP president in office, will naturally amplify the impact of urban areas. It is possible that some of these counties will nudge left in the next four years, but the gains in many notable interior Pennsylvania counties are still obvious, including in some even last week:

· Berks (+34)

· Fayette (+62)

· Lebanon (+37)

· Luzerne (+63)

· Schuylkill (+43)

· Washington (+41)

· Westmoreland (+70)

· York (+34)

The key areas of Pennsylvania that shifted from blue dog to Trump or die continue to show the same characteristics, and I won’t worry about Pennsylvania until that stalls out. In all likelihood, once primaries are over this month, we will resume the Pennsylvania GOP shift. As you can see before this week’s update, all 67 counties have shifted rightward since November 2024 in a state that is thinking about becoming a GOP-plurality state by the time J.D. Vance takes a shot at it in 2028:

Pennsylvania is just D+2.0% in party registration

Do Mrs. K or Toni Shuppe seem nervous about Pennsylvania?

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Admin Notes

Today is May 1, and if you’ve been reading my email notifications, you may know that I’m sprucing up the offerings here at Captain K’s Corner. I have adjusted my pricing to keep up with three years of inflation and expanding what I’m offering here, and in fact am withdrawing from frequent X and Truth Social posting to focus on my work here (and to reduce the impact of addictive social media platforms). As of this morning, Captain K’s Corner is #13 in U.S. Politics rising (rate of growth) and #75 overall in the genre, and this is thanks to you, your readership, and your loyal support of my journal.

I aim to bring you the best product possible from the mind of an Army intelligence veteran who sees how the world is shaped before you today. You can count on me to show up for work, own it when I need to own it, and be unafraid to counter the mainstream narratives. As for offerings:

· To reward those of you who are paid subscribers, I will host a weekly Substack Live Video chat (download the App) and will announce them 24 hours in advance (you’ll be notified via email). This will provide for a smaller audience and deeper engagement for those of you who tune in. This will begin this week.

· For all subscribers, including free ones, I’ll host a second Substack Live Video chat with as much notice as possible, but not likely 24 hours since I’m usually flying by the seat of my pants. This will be open to all App users so I can increase the exposure and readership of the journal.

· In keeping with the streamlining of operations, I will be looking to build a more engaging community, including by expanding use of the Captain K’s Corner chat, which all users can ask questions and start threads in. I want this journal to soar to the top of the list, not only for a sense of permanence on my end, but for a lasting impact on the information war. Most of the names above mine on Substack’s leaderboards are former corporate hacks who maintained massive email lists from which they distributed (and still distribute) their misleading propaganda - take Adam Kinzinger for a prime example as he throws out soft-serve for the Trump-deranged to pass around like a delicacy.

· If I could give it away for free, I would. But as it stands, my obligation is to provide you with first-in-class analysis and make what I’ve got to offer worth your time, energy, and money. If I can do anything for you, or you’d like to book me to come in for an event, please email me at skeshel@protonmail.com. You can adjust your subscription here if you’d like to upgrade to paid for the full experience (just $6.25 per month for an annual subscription):

I will have massive news to share with all of you who have supported me as soon as it is all set in stone. I hinted at that in a recent “chat” post about getting the call from the big leagues.

As always, thank you for supporting my work, your dedication to fixing our nation, and for never giving up the pursuit of liberty and freedom.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.