The GOP Is Deficient in Mathematics

For the love of God, please pull out a white board and figure out “the art of what is possible.”

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Tuesday night’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race is about as open and shut of an elections case as you’ll find anywhere. Maria Lazar (the de facto GOP candidate) barely cleared 600,000 votes, the lowest output in nearly a decade for such a race, and Chris Taylor (the de facto Democrat candidate) would have lost to the last Republican who ran just a year ago with her meager vote total that lagged last year’s winner, Susan Crawford, by an America’s Dairyland mile. You can read about my take on that race here:

As you probably know by now, intelligence officers are map junkies. I found one last night that spoke volumes of words about what Republicans simply cannot grasp:

Sir Humphrey 🇺🇦@bdquinn

Liberals only feel comfortable advancing into Republican territory along major roads.

Josh Metcalf @josh_metcalf

This Tuesday, Dem-endorsed Chris Taylor romped to an easy victory over conservative Maria Lazar in Wisconsin's Supreme Court Election, winning by over 20 points and cementing a 5-2 liberal majority on the court. Here is that race, mapped at the precinct level.

11:53 PM · Apr 9, 2026 · 117K Views

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30 Replies · 31 Reposts · 1.05K Likes

The Republican Party reminds me of a football team that continues to try to run the football up the middle despite being stuffed at the line of scrimmage, or behind it, over and over again. At some point, you have to tip your hat to the defense and recognize that you’ll need to open up the playbook, especially if your defense can’t keep up with your opponent’s. Wisconsin is simply a microcosm of this problem that we see all over the country. There are some states in which the rural, exurban, and suburban (although those are waning) counties consistently overpower the blue bubbles. They come in all shapes and sizes, like these examples:

• Texas

• Florida

• Montana

• Iowa

With the party registration shifts visible to me in some states, and often decades of data at my disposal, it is clear that Republicans can keep executing the same game plan in states like that until further notice. In a football context, that means keep punishing them with the same few plays that are working. Then we have the states in which the blue bubbles are so supremely dominant, and the suburban areas too liberal, that they overwhelm the states I don’t expect modern-day Republicans to be competitive in outside of a few quirks (like Massachusetts’ strange fascination with GOP governors surrounded by an all-Democrat legislatures). Some of these states are:

• Massachusetts

• Connecticut

• Delaware

• Maryland

In football, you punt on 4th-and-18 unless you have no other options at the end of a game. In elections, we punt on pushing finite resources to statewide races in those states (or in unwinnable districts), especially those resources pooled specifically for holding or gaining majorities or winning the Electoral College.

Then you have the 3rd-and-7 or 4th-and-1 states that are do-or-die, go big or go home, that must be won, or potentially could shift into battleground status with the proper strategies (and in many cases, common sense election laws taking root). These are my 11 critical states (sorry, Virginians):