The Massive Impact of Eliminating Racially Drawn Congressional Districts
How drastically will this change the power struggle in the U.S. House for the foreseeable future?
Before the NFL was unwatchable, I enjoyed watching Peyton Manning quarterback the Colts. Peyton had the size and a solid arm, but what truly set him apart was the engine in between his ears. He assessed the line of scrimmage and the pass coverage at an unparalleled level and quite often no one, the Colts included, had any idea what play would be run until Manning himself called it at the line.
So it is when people ask me about my 2026 U.S. House forecast. By now, you probably understand the headwinds blow strongly against the President’s party, which has lost net seats in 20 of 23 midterms since 1934. With retiring Republicans giving way to vacant seats and many incumbents far less popular than President Trump in their own districts, a static map makes it much more likely that Democrats can flip three seats and take the majority. The average loss for the President’s party since 1934 is 27 seats. The good news for Republicans is that, combined with the obvious party registration trends, the maps are anything but static. GOP states, led by Texas, are going to pick up net seats even if Gavin Newsom rams his haphazard California redistricting plan through the courts. This week, North Carolina Republicans announced a new map that state law prevents even the Democrat governor from vetoing, which would eliminate Don Davis in NC-1.
The biggest midterm-related news, underscoring why I don’t see the point in predicting specific house races until we get to the line of scrimmage during early voting next year, came with this week’s updates on Louisiana v. Callais, which is at the U.S. Supreme Court. Here is what NPR had to say:
A major redistricting case returning to the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday could not only determine the fate of the federal Voting Rights Act, but also unlock a path for Republicans to pick up a slew of additional congressional seats.
If the high court overturns the act’s Section 2 — a provision that bans racial discrimination in voting — GOP-controlled states could redraw at least 19 more voting districts for the House of Representatives in favor of Republicans, according to a recent report by the voting rights advocacy groups Black Voters Matter Fund and Fair Fight Action.
A frustrated Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, a highly questionable Biden legacy in our highest court, wound up calling minorities “disabled” during oral arguments this week, which signaled a very real possibility the court will strike down requirements for legislatures to draw districts with race at the forefront of consideration. Remember, readers, fairness only matters in redistricting when Republicans are in charge. Take a look at New England:
21 U.S. House seats and not a single Republican? No issue there; California, with 43 Democrat seats and 9 Republican seats, has a more lopsided share than Texas, with 28 Republicans to 13 Democrats, and this stands to get worse in favor of California even if both dominant parties make expected gains from redistricting. So, in this captain’s opinion, to hell with fair districts.
Republicans need to win this round and then, as is likely, someone will intervene and mandate fair districting across the board nationwide. Nevertheless, if the Supreme Court guts Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, there will be major ramifications for Congressional elections. It is serious enough that The New York Times has already sounded the alarm:
Timing, if the decision to gut Section 2 is made, is everything. I am not confident this sweeping change would occur in time for the 2026 midterms given all the filing deadlines, ongoing campaigns, and other details holding back large overhauls like this one. It would most certainly be in play by 2028, when the nation will return to full turnout levels, making upsets less common. For now, I’ll review the map of the 24 Democrat-held House seats in eight southern states (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana) and assess the likelihood of them being turned red:
12 Democrat Seats to Remain
I concur with the New York Times that the twelve seats on the right of the graphic will remain in Democrat hands. These are what I call vote dumps, which are drawn in by Republican legislatures to contain as many Democrat votes as possible. Think of it like a quarantine (a real one, not a COVID-19 detention of healthy people), in which North Carolina realizes it has a political disease, such as Raleigh, that will contaminate healthy parts of the states if it isn’t quarantined. They create the district knowing it can’t be won by Republicans and draw as much of the blue into it as possible. They realize the blue virus doesn’t travel far, thereby having a narrow infection radius by quality of spread, and can often manage the symptoms for a decade or more before reassessing for urban growth. Austin is masterfully carved out of political maps in Texas under the guidelines above. So, Democrats will continue to manage fiefdoms in metro Atlanta, which the Georgia GOP refuses to even minimally contest, Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, Tampa, Orlando, and the most poverty-stricken, non-English speaking districts of South Florida.
SEATS THAT WILL FLIP
Louisiana (2)
LA-2: D+46.7% margin in 2024 and currently a vote dump for New Orleans held by Troy Carter. Surrounded by LA-1 (Scalise, R+42.8%), LA-3 (Higgins, R+51.9%), and LA-5 (Letlow, R+37.0%). Enter Republican Representative from New Orleans, something you never thought you’d hear.
LA-6: This is a seat the Louisiana legislature was forced to cough up in 2024 due to racial districting requirements. D+13.1% margin for Cleo Fields in 2024. Borders LA-2, but also three red districts, none of which have a margin lower than Letlow’s R+37.0%). It is gone the moment the decision drops.
Mississippi
MS-2: As a kid growing up in Jackson, I lived under Bennie Thompson’s fickle leadership (or lack thereof) firsthand. This district covers Jackson and the poverty-stricken Mississippi Delta along the river and had a D+24.0% margin in 2024. Thompson would probably retire rather than lose this seat, which would be merged with MS-1 (R+39.6%, Kelly) and MS-3 (Uncontested, Guest). It’s gone.
Alabama
AL-2: This is the second seat in the South Republicans had to give away thanks to the demands of racial boundary lines. It sweeps across the bottom of the state and loops in Montgomery, the state capital, and put Shomari Figures in by a D+9.1% margin. With a margin that close, it will be easily choked out by AL-1 (Moore, R+56.9%), AL-3 (Rogers, uncontested), and AL-6 (Palmer, R+40.7%). Gone.
AL-7: Here is the Democrat vote dump organically within Alabama, intended to suck up Birmingham and large chunks of the rural “black belt” area running across the south. Terri Sewell held it by a D+27.5% margin in 2025, but it blends into the enormously Republican AL-4 (Aderholt, uncontested on over 270,000 votes) and AL-6 (Palmer, R+40.7%). It won’t be a big margin, but it should go and will likely draw more from AL-4 than AL-6.
Georgia
GA-2: Sanford Bishop held the seat in 2024 by a margin of D+12.6%, just shy of 40,000 votes. This covers Columbus and a stretch of the rural southwest portion of the state, and borders GA-3 (Jack, R+32.6%) and GA-8 (Scott, R+37.8%). There is no way this seat holds for Democrats if Section 2 goes down.
Democrats had at least 71.8% of the vote in each of their four Atlanta districts, and I don’t see sufficient Republican margins from neighboring districts to snatch any of them, so Columbus will have to suffice.
Florida
FL-9: Contains a portion of Orlando and sweeps down into heavily Latino (Puerto Rican) Osceola County, which Trump flipped in 2024. Darren Soto won the seat by a D+12.5% margin, or just over 40,000 votes. This seat is toast for Democrats, as it merges with FL-8 (Haridopolos, R+24.4%), FL-11 (Webster, R+20.8%), and FL-18 (Franklin, R+30.6%).
FL-20: This seat held no election in 2024 after only Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick qualified for the ballot. This seat can be vanquished by neighboring FL-18 (Franklin, R+30.6%), FL-21 (Mast, R+23.6%), and especially FL-26 (Diaz-Balart, R+41.8%).
Here is where disagreement enters between my opinion and that of the New York Times. I see more than two potential flips in South Florida depending on how these lines are drawn. Diaz-Balart’s fat margin may be applied to FL-25, which the insufferable Debbie Wasserman Schultz held by a D+9.0% margin in 2024. The Times seems to think she’s gone, and if she is, it will be because FL-26 was shoved into the current district lines. That will require FL-18 and FL-21 to wipe out Cherfilus-McCormick in FL-20.
FL-23 is vulnerable for Democrats but is shielded perhaps by its neighboring districts. If Mast’s FL-21 can be successfully shoved down further into Palm Beach County, Lois Frankel could be sent packing, as she only won by a D+10.0% margin in 2024, or just over 36,000 votes.
Verdict on Florida: three goners for sure, with potential for four.
South Carolina
SC-6: Child’s play here, as Biden’s vote bagman Jim Clyburn will be retired. His large southeastern district (D+22.8%) that includes Charleston bumps up against four big Republican districts. SC-5 (R+27.2%) and SC-7 (Fry, R+30.0%) have much higher margins than the other two, so I suspect they’ll contribute the most to Clyburn’s departure. Long gone.
North Carolina
NC-1: Addressed at the beginning of this article. This seat is currently held by Democrat Don Davis by a tiny D+1.7% margin from the last election (6,307 votes). The North Carolina Legislature has already moved to retire Davis, and NC-3 next door (Murphy, R+54.8%) has more than enough love to contribute to the effort.
Tennessee
TN-9: A vote dump if I’ve ever seen one, with Steve Cohen commanding a D+45.6% margin in 2024 in a district designed to quarantine Memphis. If there were a seat I wasn’t 100% certain would flip (like I feel about TX-28), it would be this one. Neighboring TN-8 doesn’t have enough votes to donate to the flip by itself, and Tennessee’s long outline doesn’t pair well with a district shaped just right to take out Memphis. Remember, Tennessee has managed to deprive Nashville of a Democrat Representative, but those margins aren’t huge outside of TN-6.
Final Southern Verdict
Democrats are definitely in deep shit if Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is overturned. Here is the damage:
Guaranteed GOP Flips 1o (LA-2, LA-6, MS-2, AL-2, AL-7, GA-2, FL-9, FL-20, SC-6, NC-1)
Implied GOP Flip Depending on Boundaries 1 (FL-25)
Possible GOP Flips 2 (one extra in South Florida, TN-9)
This means, by my electoral analysis, Democrats stand to lose a net of 11 to 13 seats in the U.S. House if things go the way they seem to be going at the Supreme Court. This would put the GOP right on the putting green of a majority every cycle, midterm or presidential, until counteracted.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
This is a more realistic assessment of the GOP seat gains, but still a very positive sign. I only hope the Supreme Court makes this an urgent ruling, and doesn't wait months to do so.
Interesting analysis. I remember reading a book in the early 90s called Minority Party by Peter Brown. At that time, the author made a compelling case that minority majority House districts made it much more likely for the GOP to eventually win the House (this was 1992 before the Gingrich Contract with America wave) as those laws made it easier to create vote dump districts that reduced the number of reliably Democratic voters that would have, in the past, been spread throughout the districts to provide winning margins for Democratic House candidates. What Brown and others probably didn't anticipate was how much working class voters (white and minority) were eventually going to realign with the GOP 30 years later.