The Only Midterm Forecasting Handbook You'll Need to Read This Year
Topic: Elections
It’s beginning to look a lot like election season. This means infighting, rumor mills, doom mongering, worry, pessimism, and of course, manipulation by means of media polling. I have written at length about the true intent of media polling, which is to deceive the electorate, suppressing votes and bolstering narratives that certain candidates are pre-destined to win.
No matter how many election cycles pass, the timeless lessons of political science must be passed on. No, Hillary, you are not likely to win, because it is all but impossible for the same political party to win three consecutive terms in the White House in the modern political era. No, Joe, you won’t carry Florida, because Florida has voted for the incumbent in every presidential election since 1984, even for George Bush in his miserable campaign of 1992.
You see, midterm elections are also heavily bound by political science. That is why, in the event of these trends, indicators, bellwethers, and predictors being upset, it is easy to identify what is certainly clear-cut election manipulation. In midterms, the game is simple. The president’s party almost always suffers a significant beatdown, especially if there is a second midterm for the same president (Year 6).
The 2018 midterm results suggest substantial fraud, a likely tune-up for the 2020 coup against President Trump. There were more than 111 million ballots cast for Democrat or Republican House Candidates, up from 76 million in 2014, and even higher than 83 million cast in 2010, which was driven by the initial surge of the Tea Party. Even so, Trump’s Republicans netted two U.S. Senate seats in 2018, although the Democrats gained 41 seats in the U.S. House. In retrospect, given what we know thanks to the 2020 election, it is likely the GOP should have expanded the House majority and gained even more Senate seats in 2018.
From UC Santa Barbara:
In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. The president’s party gained seats in the House only three times, but gained seats in the Senate on sixoccasions. The president’s party has gained seats in both houses only twice.
Joe Biden is a dud. Even Democrats think so, which is obvious given his poor numbers in opinion polls, including those inquiring about his legitimacy. His approval rating, constantly bolstered by the media, hovers around 40%, and is likely in the low thirties in an accurate sampling. There are economic concerns at home, high prices associated with essentials like gas and groceries (think Jimmy Carter), foreign policy disaster abroad, and the prevailing concern that the “President” has cognitive issues, and his second-in-command is a know-nothing political creature who couldn’t lead a dog to a meat wagon.
Clearly, the Republican party would be set to have tremendous gains in a real election, likely on par with the results of the 1994 midterms, which were amplified at all levels of government by the success of the Republican “Contract with America.” Here are the highlights at the federal level:
The Republicans gained 8 U.S. Senate seats, including in key states like Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Maine. The tide was strong enough to hold seats in very difficult political battlegrounds like Minnesota and Washington.
The Republicans also netted 54 U.S. House seats, giving them unified control of Congress for the first time since 1952. Democrats had very few flips, and the GOP dominated the map, especially in the west.
Now, for governors:
The GOP dominated the gubernatorial slate, racking up a net gain of 10 governorships, including its crown jewel, Texas, and the real shocker, New York, as voters in the Empire State dispatched Mario Cuomo. California, Massachusetts, and Minnesota retained their Republican governors.
Where does that leave us for 2022?
I believe the conditions for the 2022 elections are much worse for Democrats, who are seen as a threat to everything American, than those seen in 1994. The election integrity movement’s continued prominence, and the ensuing assaults on said movement in the press, confirm the media’s desperation to quell the belief that Joe Biden was installed by heavy election fraud (roughly three in five Americans believe it, while at least three in four believe the system of elections is not trustworthy).
Caveat: I expect the 2022 midterms to pick up where 2018 and 2020 left off. I believe the GOP will still control both chambers in the next Congress, but the damage is already done. Most of those Republicans who made it through primaries are of the standard establishment cloth, especially in key states like Georgia and Texas. Fortunately, there are some stars like Kari Lake, Mark Finchem, Ron DeSantis, Doug Mastriano, and others, who are must-win candidates for their respective states. I expect the elections in Arizona and Pennsylvania to be particularly troublesome.
Here are a few gubernatorial races that indicate the true drift of the 2022 midterms for me, that stick through the weed-filled fields polluted by media polling, meaning that if the elections were organic, they would be realistic and believable based on historic tendencies.
October 21, Florida Atlantic University
DeSantis +11, Florida Governor
Comment: I expect a blowout for America’s most popular governor, and a possible victory in Miami-Dade County, highlighting the shift in party identification for the Hispanic working class of South Florida.
October 21, UT/Texas Tribune
Abbott +11, Texas Governor
Comment: In line with double digit Republican wins in a state not trending Democrat, despite media lies.
Walz and Jensen tied at 46%, Minnesota Governor
Comment: Minnesota going red shows the disgust with blue state leadership and also tracks with the strong America First trend present in the Upper Midwest.
Drazan +6, Oregon Governor
Comment: Drazan is the consistent leader in polls now, and is benefitting from a strong third party candidate splitting the progressive vote. Oregon going red does not translate to a nationwide Democrat surge of any extent.
Hochul +2, New York Governor
Comment: Lee Zeldin is hot on the trail of the Democrat incumbent. Trafalgar has also polled the AG race in favor of the GOP candidate Michael Henry.
These top of the ticket polls, although sticking out from the field of propaganda, show the clear picture of what the actual trajectory of a Biden-era midterm is. These extend down to lower races, like the Washington Senate race showing Tiffany Smiley within striking distance of the incumbent Democrat.
Here are likely results based on the assumption the above polls are reflective of reality in fair elections:
ALASKA
Tshibaka by 5% (Ranked Choice Voting)
ARIZONA
Lake by 10%+
Finchem by 8-10%
Masters by 5%
FLORIDA
DeSantis by 12%+
GEORGIA
Walker by 5-8%
MICHIGAN
Dixon by 2-5%
MINNESOTA
Jensen by 2-5%
NEVADA
All statewide GOP by 2-5%
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Bolduc by 2-4%
NEW MEXICO
Ronchetti by 3%+
NEW YORK
All statewide GOP within 3% either way
NORTH CAROLINA
Budd by 10%+
OHIO
Vance by 8-10%
PENNSYLVANIA
Mastriano by 3-5%
Oz within 2% either way
TEXAS
Abbott by 12-15%
WISCONSIN
Michels by 2-5%
We hope for the best, continue working to ensure it, and never relent until we achieve the goal of securing America’s elections.
The idea of 2018 electile dysfunction is not brought up enough. The Trump Derangement Syndrome started way before then, so it makes sense that the left would enhance the fraud against Trump. Since it worked in 2018, but not as well as the Left would have liked- initiate Plandemic, go all out and get rid of Trump in 2020. And until bad behavior is punished- it continues up the intensity ladder until it does.
What about Kemp in Georgia, Captain? He’s a CCP owned traitor installed by the corrupt selection system. I’d rather hang him than vote for him.