Three Reasons I Am Confident Biden or Harris will be Democrat Nominee

Topic: Perspective

Occams razor

Of two competing theories, the simpler explanation of an entity is to be preferred.

Which two theories are present in the current Democrat presidential sweepstakes now that the media is pressuring Joe Biden to drop out of the race?  Forget how many names are floating around, let’s boil it down to two simple outcomes:

One member of the Biden-Harris administration and current presidential ticket will be the Democrat nominee…

or…

Some other Democrat will be the nominee.  Those names include ones like Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Pete Buttigieg, the old battle axe herself, Hillary Clinton, and the great fear of so many with 2008 Obamamania burned into their subconscious beings, Michelle Obama.

I am with Larry Schweikart and Richard Baris on this one.  I believe, as of the time of this writing (July 5, 2024), that Joe Biden will be the Democrat nominee.  Today marks four months until Election Day, that now-arbitrary line in the sand marking a stopping point for early voting and mail-in balloting and the beginning of a furious stretch of tallying and shutting out as many folks from the observation process as necessary in the event more ballots need to be “found” throughout Las Vegas, Phoenix, or Philadelphia, to name just a few hot spots.

My assessment is made despite holding the same belief as many who are awake when it comes to election integrity matters in this country, that switching out this human cadaver for anyone else (Harris included) would be perhaps the only way to sell people on an election outcome in which Donald Trump somehow was kept out of the White House, again, under similar circumstances.  That narrative would sound something like this:

You see, Trump wasn’t really that popular, he was only polling ahead because Biden had an unforeseen mental health crisis and had to drop out.  Once he was replaced, the electorate settled back into its normal balance.

Trump was likely going to beat Biden narrowly in the Electoral College, but once the Democrats listened to donors and made a tough call to run (insert name), voters rallied to that person as a means of preserving our democracy.

So, that remains a possibility if it is Harris who runs instead of Biden, and something worth keeping an eye on, but Trump appears to beat her twice as badly in polling as he does Biden, so it’s not as simple of a sell as some would believe.  Harris is viewed nationally as a far left whack job who made her way into public life through dishonorable methods, who seems like perhaps the worst possible pick if I thought the path to 270 electoral votes hinged on nominating a presidential candidate who didn’t instill sheer terror into factory workers throughout the Industrial Midwest and have them thinking they’d be eating from dumpsters on day one of her administration (and I do).  If Harris is the nominee, I again agree with Schweikart that she will probably also be the sitting president at election time, given that Biden would be withdrawing from the race for health reasons and would logically have no mandate to remain in the most powerful office in the world.  TruthHammer points out the inconvenience for Trump here is less about Harris being the temporary president, but more about having to rebrand all his 45-47 merchandise to reflect the reality that he would, if elected, be number 48.

Without further ado, here are three reasons I believe Biden or Harris will head the Democrat ticket this fall:

I.                             Markets Agree

PredictIt has seen Biden take a massive plunge since the debate last week, but he and Harris are still viewed as four to five times more likely that the next most betted contract (Michelle Obama).

Of note, this author placed thousands of dollars on Trump in the Rust Belt last cycle on PredictIt with very juicy odds in my favor, only to lose it to the system when those states were stolen.  Sites like this are prone to groupthink and lemminglike behavior, but the point is that most people find it unlikely for someone, this late in the game, to replace either Biden or Harris, who both hold the Presidency and Vice Presidency, respectively.

Real Clear Polling has a nice aggregator that tracks not only PredictIt, but Betfair, Bovada, Polymarket, and Smarkets, and they all show similar numbers, with Harris slightly leading Biden, but the pair combined substantially leading any other potential suitors.  You may be thinking “what does it matter if a bunch of Internet zombies waste their money on the wrong people?”  Betting houses don’t stay in business by making a habit out of giving away vast sums of money, and the odds are primarily driven by massive wagers made only after the execution of substantial research into every nook and cranny of a potential opportunity.  Sports betting experts dig all the way into humidity, turf conditions, elevation factors, and how much sweat a quarterback’s hands are going to carry and therefore create risk of fumbling a snap when the game is on the line.  Any clear indicator or inside information that someone other than these two would be likely to snag the presidential nomination would be known by the biggest pros in the game and would manifest itself in competitive odds signaling a much greater likelihood of occurrence.

If you want to throw money on Clinton, who lost in 2016 to a political novice when she was eight years younger and even less hideous than she is today, but still unelectable with the working-class, consider throwing it to me instead, or donating it to the Trump campaign.