Trouble in Paradise - Who is the Conspiracy Theorist Now?
Bringing needed transparency to Ralph Cushnie’s efforts in Hawaii establishes 2020 speculation as more fact than theory.
Three years ago, I washed ashore in Hawaii for the first election integrity event in the state, set up by Corinne Solomon on Oahu. A few months later, I returned to Hawaii and this time pulled a triple-header on Oahu, Kauai, and Hawaii (the Big Island). My hosts in Kauai were Ralph and Laura Cushnie. Ralph was born and raised on Kauai (taking a break for military service) and operates a business there. He also sits on the Hawaii State Elections Commission.
Hawaii operates the unholy trifecta when it comes to their elections - Automatic Voter Registration, Universal Mail-In Balloting, and widespread Ballot Harvesting. This is why, despite constant Democrat failure and a massive GOP (Trump) surge in 2020 and 2024 over his own 2016 vote count, Hawaii remains a deeply blue state. Cushnie has been all over the issue since the 2020 election, in which I determined Kauai County had roughly 6,225 more ballots for Joe Biden than any reasonable forecast would have predicted. Notice Trump’s strong gain in votes in 2020, but how he lost by more votes than he did in 2016 in a county with only modest growth and a big rightward swing in the Native Hawaiian vote:
Even accounting for the large 2016 third-party share, Biden’s forecast comes out to 15,000 in 2020 per my modeling thanks to an enormous gain of 52.9% in votes by Trump. He’s 6,225 over that, outperforming the Hawaiian Barack Obama for raw votes in the face of a massive gain by his opponent. If my forecast would have matched official results, Biden would have still won the county by 16.2%; now, let’s introduce the 2024 result:
Well isn’t this a shocker - there are 3,433 fewer ballots in the 2024 count than 2020’s, with Harris lagging Biden by 3,550. Harris’s total is just 2,675 above my 2020 Biden forecast, suggesting ballot stuffing is still occurring, but lending major credence to my 2020 theories given that Trump himself is barely over his own vote count from four years prior.
How is all this happening? Let’s see what Ralph has to say about his research into the 2024 election:
Citing Hawaii law at the 25 second mark, Ralph says, “Counties are required to keep a complete and current count of all ballots received starting when they are picked up from the drop box or the post office. But that’s not happening. For example, Kauai County reported collecting 23,303 ballot envelopes, but the state reported counting 27,075 ballots. That’s 3,772 unexplained ballots.”
Notably, deducting 3,772 ballots from Harris’s count would put her at 13,903 ballots, eerily in line with my Biden forecast and accounting for another four years of Democrat apathy and lower turnout. That’s a margin of just 8.0% for Harris, in line with the shifting of the minority voting population and the established trend line starting in 2008 at the Obama apogee point.
Ralph goes on to describe the same problem on Hawaii County (the Big Island), echoing the simple fact that Hawaii’s own records don’t match the records maintained by the counties. Cushnie details his efforts to obtain answers through the legal system in his capacity as an Elections Commissioner, but is repeatedly told he lacks standing and pushed away with jackbooted tactics.
I’ve have my name run through the mud by establishment media in this country, as well as by useless weasels from my own party lacking a backbone, yet plainly stated details such as Cushnie’s are permitted to be left unaddressed. I have a very strong feeling that is about to change. Being proven right should be a satisfying thing, but when it comes to our failed elections system that is allowed to stand despite the massive infringement upon the rights of legal American voters, it only serves to erode the frail sinews of trust left in certain states to do anything in the interest of the people.
My ask of you is that you support Ralph and good Hawaii patriots by virtually attending the next Elections Commission meeting on Thursday (unless you want to take a little skip across the Pacific to go in person). You can sign up for notifications here.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
I admire your persistence!!!!!
Interesting how Hawaii's system requires a google account to obtain meeting notices (as if google needs any more personal info about people) and also mysteriously has "no data available" about any upcoming election commission meetings [elections.hawaii.gov/about-us/boards-and-commissions/elections-commission/]. Meetings shown have been happening about every other month (FEB, MAR, APR, JUN, AUG, OCT, DEC'24, JAN, MAR'25) but suddenly none for the last three months and nothing scheduled. Yes indeed, "Who is the Conspiracy Theorist Now?"