Vance Has A Ceiling of 359 Electoral Votes in 2028 (Q2 2025 Presidential Forecast)

My first quarterly forecast updating where things stand for the 2028 presidential race, which can be measured by the very methods that gave me a 100% perfect Electoral College prediction last year

Given my penchant for accurate forecasting in the age of ballot collection contests I refer to as quasi-elections, I’ve decided to start a quarterly installment previewing the 2028 Presidential election. For each installment, I’ll set the conditions for the race as it stands in that quarter. For instance, this 2028 Electoral College assessment is for Q2 2025 and is taken using the following assumptions:

· J.D. Vance as 2028 Republican nominee

· Generic Democrat as 2028 Democrat nominee (in other words, assessment doesn’t consider home state factors or dark horse candidates that could skew the assessment significantly)

· Carryover of party registration values from 2024 election, updated each month from publicly available information (you’ll want to have this up in a separate window while reviewing this assessment)

· Consideration of any relevant information impacting the assessment for that quarter

· Yes, I understand election fraud and you should take all these assessments with a Barry Bonds-styled *asterisk* - even my models themselves consider all known laws and history of malfeasance in a given state

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Introduction

As always, 538 electoral votes will be up for grabs in 2028, and provided the race is a two-man race (meaning two major, viable candidates), the winner will need 270 (a majority) to win. I’ve made the case that J.D. Vance is the only real option for Republicans to hope for in 2028, simply because if he is not the nominee, it means the Trump 47 administration got off the tracks somewhere between now and then, opening a pathway for someone else to take the top spot. I can’t see people being thrilled with the Trump administration and then somehow going in a different direction from the MAGA V.P., who is converting skeptics at a rate far surpassing any loss of support.

A critical factor in this Q2 2025 forecast is President Trump’s approval rating, which has been measured as high as 54% this week, which is very impressive given the sheer volume of angst and dissent sewn in political media this month. This portends good news for Trump’s eventual successor, although we are a long way in both time and human events from 2028.

For this assessment, imagine J.D. Vance against a generic Democrat, in line with Gavin Newsom, Cory Booker, or a repeat Kamala Harris candidacy. Introducing Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer skews my battleground assessments, which I’ll explain later.

Let’s jump in:

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Round 1 - Take it to the Bank

These are states or jurisdictions I expect to be won by either nominee by at least 10%. This includes all of President Trump’s certified 2020 slate except for North Carolina. Notable assessments:

· Florida continues to advance its GOP party registration edge, which also tracks to Pennsylvania and Michigan historically (refer to April 2025 battlegrounds analysis)

· After roll clearing, Iowa has also resumed a Republican lean in party registration, which impacts Wisconsin and Minnesota

· Texas, with the Latino working class realignment, has resumed its status as a ruby red state

· Vance would carry his home state, Ohio, by a wide margin

· Maine’s 2^nd Congressional District (worth 1 electoral vote) is the most likely Republican-won jurisdiction to finish below 10% (won by Trump by 9.0% in 2024), but I also expect party registration to continue in a Republican direction between now and then

· Democrats are no longer a safe bet to carry Illinois, Colorado, or New York by double digits, which has major implications for the national popular vote (compounded by Florida and Texas becoming overwhelmingly Republican)

Vance commands 219 safe electoral votes, while the 2028 Democrat holds just 120.

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Round 2 - Strength of Registration – Likelies

Here are the states, on the first pass through those remaining and not including my seven true 2024 battlegrounds (I never had North Carolina on it), that are likely to be decided by at least 5%:

· The Democrat takes Colorado, Illinois, New York, and Maine’s 2 statewide electors.

· Vance takes North Carolina by 5-7% on the strength of the party registration lean, which will almost certainly be a comfortable Republican advantage for the first time in history (Florida lite)

After this sorting, Vance commands a 235 to 179 lead. All Democrat electoral votes here are under Automatic Voter Registration.

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Round 3 - Strength of Registration - Battlegrounds

Round 3 calls 2024 battlegrounds into the funnel.