Virginia is for Fraudsters: Inside the Fight with Henrico County

Topic: Investigation

Gather around, dear friends.  Make yourselves comfortable and incline your minds toward what I am about to share with you.  I suppose this invite extends even to my enemies, those of you who gleefully carry water for a political regime as long as candidates from your party advance from elections to hold office.

Nearly one year ago, I documented my findings from Henrico County, Virginia, suggesting 10 precincts likely had more than 100 percent turnout in the 2020 presidential quasi-election, not only helping to enhance Joe Biden’s margin against Donald Trump, but pushing Abigail Spanberger over Nick Freitas in a squeaker for a U.S. House seat once the absentee ballots were tallied.

Virginia, under Democrat rule in 2020, did not require counties to track absentee ballots by precinct four years ago.  Under Republican rule, that has since changed back to how it was in all elections before 2020, almost as if what I’m about to tell you is about as plainly obvious as the law of gravity is when someone drops a dish from the sink to the floor.  That means, on paper, that all precincts in Henrico County (and other large counties that opted not to track absentees by precinct) came in well below their 2016 turnout levels, creating the illusion that there is no glut of excess ballots to be found anywhere.  After all, the very first quality check in an election is to ensure that there are not more votes cast in any jurisdiction than there are registered voters to cast them.

The workaround in Virginia was to assign all absentee ballots to a special category, called a CAP (Central Absentee Precinct).  Last November, this created a brief stir on social media, especially on X, that led to a bunch of proud Democrats finding the aforementioned official turnout data and flaunting it as a repudiation of my research.  Like everything else, this story went away as holidays and primaries took center stage and remained dormant until October 6, when Elon Musk commented on my reporting that had been documented by George Behizy on his platform.

Regime defenders rushed to “debunk” this research, and to further complicate things, Henrico County inserted itself into the fray, not anticipating that I would show up here today to make them look utterly foolish.  Their enablers at the Richmond Times-Dispatch were alarmed enough to take to the printing press without even asking me any clarifying questions.  These were forwarded to me by Richmond-area patriots:

First, from the October 9 edition of the paper, written by professional propagandist Anna Bryson, classifying me as Seth Keshel, a well-known election conspiracy influencer.  In this piece, she touts the defensive maneuvering of county registrar Mark Coakley without seeking input from the person supposedly being debunked (me):

Then, from the October 11 edition, from regime supporting Michael Paul Williams, describing me as simply election denier, fully capturing his lack of creative imagination:

Neither propagandist responded to my emails inviting them to discover more about my valid grievance with Henrico County.

Again, if you want to read the technical nuts and bolts of my analysis, reference this piece.  As a brief summary, here is my grievance with Henrico County:

·      I was asked by a colleague to map Henrico County’s precinct-level election results to find areas of likely bloated vote totals last November.

·      My researcher was unable to find accurate vote tallies because Virginia did not require counties to list absentees with their precincts.

·      To seek clarity and accuracy, we bought memberships to two databases, Redistricter and Dave’s Redistricting Atlas, which both showed nearly identical totals for precincts that the county’s official turnout levels suggested had major declines in voter turnout as a percentage.

·      10 precincts in Henrico County came in over 100% for turnout (votes divided by registered voters), and several others had statistically impossible turnout levels under 100%.

·      I spoke with the owner of Redistricter last week, and he told me an organization called VEST (Voting and Elections Science Team) sourced the data that populated both of those databases.  I failed to reach VEST by phone.

·      On October 9, after reading the first newspaper hit piece, I emailed Registrar Coakley the following:

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Registrar Coakley,

Please allow me to introduce myself.  I am Seth Keshel, resident of Arizona, a military veteran, and someone who has been involved in election integrity and revealing shortcuts, tricks, techniques, and loopholes used in elections since what occurred in November 2020 was perpetrated upon the people.  Forget the outcome for a moment and I'm certain most will agree that no world superpower or even first world nation should announce its winners after days of counting, and through the margins of mail-in voting, which throughout the world is considered a practice wide open to corruption and abuse.

Your local propaganda rag, the Richmond Times Dispatch, and their propagandist, Anna Bryson, characterizes me in the attached snapshot as "a well-known election conspiracy influencer."  In reality, I would prefer to move on from this realm of dealing with defensive government employees who repeatedly mock the citizens who pay their salaries for rightly being in an uproar over the state of elections in this country, like suffering under the rapid changing of election procedures to manipulate a presidential race, but I feel a compelling need to make these points as clearly as possible.  To be clear, I don't believe the Republican incumbent would have won Virginia in a fair election, but to believe a 10 point margin with a gain of nearly 200,000 Trump votes is in order is to be certifiably delusional.

Here is a little background for you.  I analyze election data, and in doing so, believe I can identify both normal and disparate vote outcomes in 2020 based on an assessment of precinct statistical trends and voter registration data.  When Ken Vande Vrede asked me to review Henrico County, my researcher pulled data from three presidential elections (2012-16-20).  Upon review, the 2020 precinct-level data is missing thousands of Republican and Democrat votes from the 2016 totals.  This is apparently because, as the Times Dispatch rag confirms, that Virginia counties were not forced to report absentee ballots within the precinct data.

You may recall a time when voter turnout was calculated the old-fashioned way, votes divided by registered voters.  Recently, to accommodate the recklessness of Automatic Voter Registration and to hide cheating, the definition of "turnout" has changed in many states to votes divided by eligible voting population, which is ridiculous.  Here is what your own website reports for 2020 turnout, in the old fashioned calculation, for the precincts I'm interested in in the context of this email. In parenthesis after the 2020 turnout rate, you will see your reported 2016 turnout for the same precinct.

Randolph 38.2% (71.1%)

Spottswood 45.5% (74.6%)

Monument Hills 44.6% (74.1%)

Hunton 48.9% (76.4%)

Rollingwood 42.3% (75.4%)

Longdale 38.9% (70.1%)

Elko 55.9% (77.6%)

Derbyshire 44.1% (78.0%)

Lauderdale 34.4% (62.8%)

Antioch 52.6% (78.1%)

Every precinct fell off by at least 21.7%, and by as much as 32.9%.  Where did all these ballots go? In your absentee pile, of course.  At a glance, it would appear voter apathy had taken over Henrico County, but nevertheless, the county certified 19,616 more ballots than in 2016.

To accommodate for various counties, such as many others in Virginia and most large counties in North Carolina, removing absentee counts from the precinct totals, I had my researcher subscribe to two precinct data databases - Dave's Redistricting Atlas and Redistricter.  I spoke with the operator of one of those databases today before writing this email, and he told me that his mapping application imported the data from a company called VEST (Voting and Election Science Team).  Somehow, this aggregator managed to reconcile the missing data for those precincts and they rendered all of them over 100% (one as high as 116%) as calculated by finding a traditional turnout rate, and of course many others are identified as having impossibly high turnout not quite reaching 100%.  In other words, someone has data that reportedly goes where the missing votes go, and applied them to two servers that are widely used by campaigns, legislatures, redistricting committees, and others who rely on precise and official statistics.

I have all of those receipts and will use and demonstrate them as needed depending on where this conversation moves.  They will not be attached to this email for the time being.

I have just one question pursuant to the above.  How many absentee ballots came from each of the following precincts?

1) Randolph

2) Spottswood

3) Monument Hills

4) Hunton

5) Rollingwood

6) Longdale

7) Elko

8) Derbyshire

9) Lauderdale

10) Antioch

Please be as precise as possible.  

Despite the angry outburst against me in the attached comedy piece, the burden is not on ME to disprove or explain these numbers.  I am the one who had the misfortune of finding them in the course of standard research that I do every day.  This email is now part of your public online infrastructure and may be found by any interested person under transparency rules and laws.

If you wish to resort to defensive and evasive tactics as demonstrated in the Times Dispatch, then be advised I have no trouble continuing to make this a noteworthy discussion to over 300,000 subscribers online.

Most sincerely,

Seth Keshel, MBA

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It has now been six days, and I have yet to receive a response from Mr. Coakley. In order to provide an atmosphere of accountability for bureaucrats who lack integrity and to defend my reputation, I am providing this article for your transparency.

I have asked one simple question of Mr. Coakley - to provide the breakout of how many absentee ballots were assigned to those 10 precincts. I believe it is clear, not only from his lack of response, but from feedback from others, that Mr. Coakley has no idea how many absentee ballots came from the precincts in question that multiple databases apparently have receipts for.

Understand, the burden does not rest on me to prove or disprove anything from Henrico County. I am simply the unfortunate soul who found out about these glaring discrepancies three years after the 2020 election. My query of Henrico County has nothing to do with how many fraudulent ballots I think may have been certified there - all I want to know is how many absentee ballots came from those precincts. They will have none of it, and have taken to their friendly papers to hide from the light of truth.

The IRS demands you to account for every cent at the risk of imprisonment. I am demanding that we have a straight answer on these ballots counts, and it is increasingly clear they have not the slightest, foggiest clue where these ballots came from. There is absolutely no way to verify whether or not these precincts came in over 100%, even though there is smoke from databases that they did.

In what universe does this make me the bad guy? I am a private citizen asking the government to provide transparency, and they have no way of doing that. As such, they confirm that the people have every right to be up in arms over the conduct of elections, and assert their belief that we are supposed to simply trust them. You wouldn’t accept this type of accounting from a salesman trying to submit a fat expense report, or from a child running a lemonade stand - but we accept it from the government?

The American experiment was not founded on trust in government - quite the opposite, actually. The government locked down American citizens in 2020 to craft the narrative of the most political virus of all time and weaponizes its own agencies to attack political opponents. Ironically, it is early Virginian Founding Fathers who would have been the first to line up in opposition to this sort of corruption.

So, let me reassert my question, Mr. Coakley:

How many absentee ballots came from each of those precincts in the 2020 election?

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.