Welcome to the New Miami
The new model for urban GOP strongholds?
On October 31, in my article “Ten Clear Signs Trump Should Win the 2024 Election,” I predicted Donald Trump would carry Miami-Dade County, Florida, and satisfy a key condition aligning with historic GOP presidential victories:
Ten Clear Signs Trump Should Win the 2024 Election
Intense exposure on several mainline right broadcasts, like appearances with Sean Spicer and Jesse Kelly, plus an interview on Dr. Steve Turley’s 1.2 million followers and counting YouTube channel, has brought many new followers here to this journal. In the event you’re one of those new followers, one reason you may not have heard of me until now is because I don’t come with much of a filter when it comes to discussing the state of elections in this country. I’m the guy that gets invited to headline a Lincoln-Reagan dinner, only for the legacy GOP bigwigs to opt for a date night with the missus or for the party to be pelted with shame letters written to the editor by old white liberals who are detached from the problems facing those who work for a living and wish to preserve
Miami-Dade County, which has a registration index of D+3.4%, is currently turning out at R+5.0% in total mail and in-person early voting. It is a near certainty that Donald Trump will carry Miami-Dade County for the first GOP presidential win there since 1988.
The GOP nominee for president has carried this county seven times – 1928, 1952, 1956, 1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988. In all seven of those elections, each nominee has won or retained the presidency.
I knew this was a likely outcome because Joe Biden had only carried it by 7.3% after a strong gain in Republican party registration in Trump’s first term, and continued movement in that direction since 2021 - led primarily by working-class minority sentiment and major support from the Cuban and Venezuelan communities. Notice how the presidential margin has moved in the same direction as the voter registration index since at least the start of this century:
The high point for Democrat registrations had been observed 2016, with 15.5% more registered Democrats than Republicans at the time. That was up 1.3% since 2012, and the 2016 result was a Democrat win 5.7%, or 81,688 votes, wider than before. Trump, unlike Mitt Romney, managed to win Florida that year because he absolutely crushed it in the white working-class or conservative areas of the state in terms of turnout and margin.
Ironically, Biden’s loss in votes from Clinton’s total is a major clue to me, given Miami-Dade was the only mega-county he went backward in, when it comes down to my 2020 analysis and suspicions; however, a tighter result was predictable by party registration changes favoring Trump. In 2024, the change was enormous and was foreshadowed by statewide Republicans winning the county easily in 2022.
At just D+3.4% in 2024, an advantage of 50,195 registrations, I knew it was going to fall for Trump. The final margin in Miami-Dade was Trump +11.4%, or +125,235. That is 18.7% (210,266) right of the 2020 result, and an amazing 415,382 right of the 2016 result that saw Clinton winning with the largest Democrat margin there since 1944.
Big news made its way around the conservative online spaces yesterday - after voter roll maintenance, Miami-Dade County now has a Republican voter registration advantage. As I’ve been reporting every month, that has been getting closer and closer, and now it is definitive:
What It Tells Us
Negative polling showing Trump underwater or recall polls suggesting Trump couldn’t win today are all false. Trump would win Miami-Dade by more than 15.0% in an election held today, and J.D. Vance is set up for a larger win in 2028 than Trump had last year if trends persist.
This is a strong indicator minority working-class gains are holding, not receding. Populism defined by an anti-crime, pro-jobs stance and detached from overblown social conservatism is a winner for the cities.
Republicans should conduct extensive surveys in Miami-Dade and figure out what is moving the needle besides simple anti-communist sentiment. These findings must be replicated in actionable sections of Atlanta, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Detroit, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Minneapolis, Newark, and any emerging swing states.
Florida is on an arc to be as reliably red as Texas has been since the 1990s, now sitting at R+9.4% overall when it was D+1.2% at the time of the 2020 election.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Nothing to do with the post but I think I finally get why you left social media now. Tonight I went down a rabbit hole on x about illegals that makes me look like little miss mary sunshine
Polling is inherently dishonest; pollsters are trained to select 'respondents' favorable to their employers, and there questions are engineered to elicit desired results. That said, I realize that some pollsters are less dishonest than others. But my contention is true.