What Now in Virginia?
Nothing “fair” about Fairfax means other options must be considered.
I suppose ballots are still trickling in, but it’s all over except for the shouting in Virginia:
The “Yes” referendum position, which allows the Virginia legislature to ditch the most balanced district maps in America and draw new maps to “restore fairness” (as the ballot language put it), has prevailed - and by a margin of 3.2% and 97,597 votes as things stand this morning.
All the data going in (polls excluded) suggested this would be a tight race. I wrote about it last week and, despite many concerns I didn’t list specifically, knew this would come down to Election Day mobilization and how much the election skewed right of recent results:
The answer was by a lot, but not enough. Here is the swing by county/independent city from 2024, when President Trump lost by 5.8% to Kamala Harris:
There are two reads here:
Nearly the entirety of RoVA (Rest of Virginia) ran well to the right of its 2024 presidential numbers (Trump won the counties outside of NoVA collectively), suggesting strong resistance to the looming 10-1 Democrat gerrymander.
NoVA (as a whole) zoomed to the left of its 2024 presidential margins, either signifying that it approves of taking away the representation of its southern neighbors in favor of themselves, or perhaps proving unintentionally that the sustained heartbeat of mail-in ballot collection is reliant upon how much mail can be collected in the 10 counties and independent cities making up the region.
Absent relief from the Virginia Supreme Court, this is going to be the result of the first statewide April election in the Commonwealth’s history:
How We Can Spot the Democrat Cheat-Fest
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