Why Do Cities Vote Democrat?

A brief series of answers to one of the most common questions I receive.

In this brief post to wrap up another newsworthy week, I’m going to offer my most important explanations to a pressing question I receive from readers of this newsletter:

Why do cities all vote Democrat?

It’s pretty much a universal truth – see for yourself below:

Even in a 13.7% Trump romp, in which Harris won just 12 of 254 counties, pretty much any city bigger than Abilene voted blue. Trump won Tarrant County – Fort Worth is still blue. The same for Plano in nearby Collin County, and especially true in the big urban monstrosities of Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio, which are located within counties Harris won, but by much smaller margins than Joe Biden did in a fiasco of a quasi-election in 2020.

Without further ado, here are my non-A.I. inspired answers, which I bake into my forecasting models, as to why Democrats rule the cities:

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I. Population Density Drives Voters Left

First, a natural consideration. The modern brand of the Republican Party, at least in written doctrine, aligns with a Jeffersonian worldview. Jefferson famously said, “When we get piled upon one another in large cities, as in Europe, we shall become as corrupt as Europe.” Conservative Republicans especially value property rights, individual freedoms, and the beauty of being left alone. They don’t want government to handle everything.

The opposite is true in cities, where voters vote for the party that promises the most investment into shared resources, programs, and infrastructure – naturally the Democrats. While Republicans are wanting to save money and not waste it on large contracts, Democrats promote public spending to the moon. Think subways, Hawaiian trains to nowhere, metro bus transport systems, or anything else designed to ease the congestion found in cities which sounds good to the voters who think they’re getting it for free - or are getting it for free at your expense.

As areas expand in population and become more densely packed, moderate voters drift left. This is why, in the 2018 Texas Senate race, Ted Cruz did better with those who had recently moved to Texas versus those who had been there for a long time. The Californians were moving in looking for Republican paradise. The locals were getting increasingly crowded in and were then able to be pitched on urban planning in formerly torch red GOP suburbs.

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II. Free Sh*t

In a similar spirit as the first point, Republicans will never compete with Democrats on handouts. The GOP says, “we will let you keep more of your money,” and the Democrats say, “here is someone else’s money.” The same goes for the clinics Democrats promise to set up for health screenings, or anything else in which that party can position itself as being for the people.

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III. Minority Populations

For example, as we learned in the most recent New York primary, New York City is barely 30% non-Hispanic white. While times are changing and Democrats are losing hold of their massive minority margins, it is not exactly rocket science for me to tell you minorities aren’t as Republican as whites. Party identification goes a long way with the population density in persuading minorities to vote for their own forced poverty.

When minority populations set up ethnic enclaves and aren’t forced to assimilate, it is easy for Democrats to pitch racism at every corner to discourage anyone from breaking away from the modern plantation. As white voters move away from cities (see below), this goes into overdrive as if it were a law of nature.

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IV. Magnet Effect

Every state has its own collection of weirdos and left-wing radicals, even Wyoming or Idaho. They don’t feel at home in a place like Bandera County, Texas, but they sure don’t mind packing up the Prius and occupying half of an apartment in Austin. Whereas Travis County, which contains metro Austin, used to be simply the seat of the Texas government with an artsy fartsy vibe, it is now a 70/30 Democrat monstrosity that is essentially the Bay Area recreated in Texas, all the way down to the big tech and nasty white liberalism you can find there (and from which many people have fled).

The magnet effect, which brings in the artisans, foodies, hedonists, recreational drug users, and those concerned with everything but making sure America can remain sovereign for future generations, ensures a steady stream of white liberals to pair with the desperately poor minority populations Democrats strategically cultivate to stay in power.

This sets into motion an equally important inverse effect in which urban conservatives are then sent running for the hills, literally, to get the hell away from the disaster unfolding before their very eyes. The attrition of opposing voters makes it that much easier for Democrats to remain in power and reduces the burden on them to execute the fifth and final point below.

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V. Urban Corruption and Election Rigging

One might think, with all the problems our cities have with rampant lawlessness, homelessness, drug abuse, and poverty, that every now and again some city may surprise with a GOP mayor getting elected. Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, and Miami currently have Republican mayors, typically of the kinder, gentler variety who may benefit from off-year elections with low turnout; however, none of the iconic, massive American cities have them, especially those mired in malaise, such as Baltimore, Detroit, or St. Louis.

With modern elections now in a new, decisively worse age controlled by paid Democrat ballot harvesters, the odds of getting a GOP mayor in one of those cities is almost nil. Things have gotten so bad with election integrity that, prior to the 2024 election, Democrats had a handle on 18 states in which the margin from one single Democrat-won county exceeded all GOP margins combined from every other county in the state. That number has come down a bit since Trump’s 2024 win, but the point remains – Democrats use their beachheads to blot out the competition statewide by blowing up their margins to impossible levels.

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Conclusion

There are certainly more than five reasons urban areas are blue, especially in the cities themselves; however, these are the ones I lend the most credence to. Until a full scale coalition shift occurs, and urban minorities shift en masse to the GOP, the cities are going to be controlled by Democrats, who dial up the white liberal hatred and ensure their minorities are barely getting by to create a toxic winning formula.

The ultra-conservative evangelical lean of the GOP grassroots, while effective on the 2024 Trump map, does not play well in the cities, which feature a less religious population that doesn’t need wide open spaces and concessions for a rural lifestyle, and is now match for the urban ballot collection apparatus made possible with modern data and technological sophistication. That means the Giuliani method, going hard after crime, cleaning up the mess, and staying out of private lives is really the only way to begin seeing change at the city level – and then, only if the corruption of our elections can be remedied effectively.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.