As we enter the final two weeks of the midterm stretch run, I’m taking another momentary pause from forecasts and predictions to give you a piece of great analytical importance. You may want to freshen up on my April 2025 article about the Latino coalition shift underway in the United States:
How to Tell Democrats Know They've Lost the Hispanic Vote
If you’ve recently found Captain K’s Corner and are looking for the latest aggregator of fake polling or someone with a mainstream media orders-driven approach to telling an audience what their itching ears want to hear, you’re in the wrong place. If you’re here for a data-driven approach to getting to the right answers, no matter who gets offended, then you’ll be satisfied with what you read in this newsletter and more often than not, sift through the archives and say,
Most analysts, anticipating the dynamics of what is supposed to be a Democrat-favorable midterm year, are writing off the Latinos as a group that is going to be rushing back to Democrat roots, thereby jeopardizing key battlegrounds (like Texas statewide and any important House seats). I say, like Lee Corso - “not so fast!”
Nearly every state reporting early voting data shows the same pattern:
Democrats rush out to a lead (we have party information in 30 states)
Republicans tighten the lead, especially in states with robust in-person early voting
Where possible (states with a sufficient voter registration advantage), Republicans take the lead in ballots returned and never relinquish it
Florida, at the time I’ve published this, sits at D+3.2% for total returns and in-person early voting. The vast interior of the state, overwhelmingly MAGA, isn’t fully open. Once it opens, the floodgates will release and Democrats will drown under the weight of the rapidly expanded GOP voter registration edge. Arizona is almost dead even for returns and running about 2 points stronger for the GOP than it was at this exact point in 2022. Before I go any further, let me explain why these dynamics persist:
At first opportunity, whether in-person or by mail, the Trump Derangement Syndrome vote sounds off. This is their first opportunity to stick it to the man they wake up thinking about every day. These are considered 4/4 (voted in each of the past two primary and General Election cycles) Democrat base voters.
Their reliable 4/4 minority voters likely get their votes banked.
Republicans, more traditional and less reactive, take their time getting ballots in during a Democrat-favorable year, but nevertheless, the gap closes over time.
Therefore, in all of the white majority, overwhelmingly red Arizona counties, Republicans are still playing catch-up. In Maricopa County, Republicans are about to take the lead in returns, but are still running just behind even; however, they’ve won the last two ballot drops and should run ahead in the next day or two. In Yavapai County, which President Trump won by roughly 34 points, voter registration sits at R+33.6% (33.6% more Republicans registered than Democrats). Currently, Yavapai County sits at R+24.2% by returns:
Don’t worry, I’m not sounding alarm bells. Democrats led in returns less than a week ago, and have returned 40.6% of all ballots they were mailed. That means Yavapai’s Democrats, though vastly outnumbered, are driven by insane white liberals who consider it an act of religious devotion to vote against Trump. Republicans vastly outnumber them and are playing the long game. I call this split (R+24.2% in returns while being R+33.6% in registration) being currently left of registration.
Clearly, if Andy Biggs is going to be in position to upset Katie Hobbs, and the GOP ticket well positioned for success for other offices and retention of the legislature, they’ll want to be right of registration both statewide (R+6.5%) and in every county possible (especially Maricopa County and Pima - the latter of which will require depressed Democrat turnout).
Here is the first gold nugget for you this year: