In the early stages of the 2024 election cycle, I created a series of pessimistic forecasts for the seven decisive states. I made them to simulate a repeat of the 2020 election, complete with its suburban swings, urban booms (yes, almost everyone knows exactly where that came from), and with the Democrat nominee somehow running ludicrously high ballot counts in rural or “Trump central” mid-sized counties.
I contrasted those concessions with a registration analysis, which turned out to be too bullish in every state but Nevada (and almost right on the money in Arizona), and when blending the two disciplines - produced seven perfect calls, with none of my margins missing by more than two points. Yes, I was more accurate than the most accurate pollsters while completely crapping all over polling. For some reason, the New York Times is no longer interested in interviewing me.
That was then, this is now. Texas is at risk, they’re telling me in the polls. What can we discern about the Lone Star State using a pessimistic model? Lots has changed since Beto O’Rourke gave Ted Cruz all he wanted in the 2018 Senate race in the middle of a suburban reorganization and lingering Trump-Cruz factional drama. Namely, this:
Not just in South Texas, but all over. From the Trans-Pecos region, to the Llano Estacado, to the cities with working-class Hispanics, and everywhere in between. Ken Paxton isn’t defending a Trump +9.0% state full of Bushies who held their nose in 2016. He’s defending a Trump +13.7% that, if we let it stick, crushes the Democrats’ dreams for the future Texas:
How Trump Saved Texas, In One Stunning Image
One of the most pleasant surprises of President Trump’s 2024 victory was his 13.7% victory in Texas, a crushing blow to decades of Democrat fantasies of turning the state blue and eliminating any pathway for a MAGA candidate to win the Oval Office. Trump had won the state in 2016 by just 9.0% (807,179) and 5.6% in 2020’s cheat fest (621,221), putting th…
I could go on and on, but the purpose of this post is to show you my pessimistic math that demonstrates exactly why I think Paxton should win against James Talarico, and additionally, why Talarico is demanding to debate the Texas Attorney General despite polling looking like something out of a dystopian novel.
In the past 10 days, Talarico’s polling average is +3.5%. There is a vast field of difference between a +6 poll (roughly 600,000 margin this year, which is impossible for a Democrat), and a +1-2 poll complete with standard polling problems like response bias, Cornyn-Paxton factional feuding, and straight up incompetence.
But what do the data say?
We need to go back to the 2016-18 timeframe to understand modern Texas. Trump got smoked in the overwhelmingly Hispanic counties of South Texas his first time around, and wore big losing margins in the major metros. No one had seen a Democrat presidential margin in Harris County as large as Clinton’s +12.3% since the old “Solid South” days (1964 and LBJ, to be exact). Still, despite Ted Cruz losing 6.4% of Trump’s 2016 margin in holding off O’Rourke, these counties shifted Republican from the 2016 presidential election to the 2018 Senate election in favor of Cruz:
107 in all, and overwhelmingly Hispanic. 52 counties shifting toward O’Rourke did so by less than 2 points, with many doing so thanks to turnout differentials in midterms or just plain old statistical noise in small counties. O’Rourke’s narrow loss, the closest race in Texas since 1998, was propelled by these shifts:
Hays County, Trump +0.8% to O’Rourke +15.4%, moving 12,872 margin
Williamson County, Trump +9.6% to O’Rourke +2.9%, moving 25,705 margin
Denton County, Trump +20.0% to Cruz +8.2%, moving 35,621 margin
Travis County, Clinton +38.6% to O’Rourke +49.7%, moving 59,438 margin
Collin County, Trump +16.6% to Cruz +6.1%, moving 38,601 margin
Tarrant County, Trump +8.6% to O’Rourke +0.7%, moving 61,825 margin
Dallas County, Clinton +25.9% to O’Rourke +33.0%, moving 42,118 margin
Bexar County, Clinton +13.3% to O’Rourke +19.9%, moving 30,167 margin
Fort Bend County, Clinton +6.6% to O’Rourke +12.1%, moving 13,610 margin
And finally…
El Paso County, Clinton +42.8% to O’Rourke +49.4%, moving 8,216 margin - this is O’Rourke’s home county and, as you will read, a major obstacle to Talarico’s presumptive pathway to victory
The shifts in Texas from 2018 to 2026 define why Paxton should be expected to win his race for the U.S. Senate. Read on: