Will Virginia Succeed in Disenfranchising Millions?
An overview of what you should know heading into next Tuesday - and a reminder to ignore polls.
Recently, I have outlined the most likely pathways for the Republican Party to hold on to the narrow U.S. House majority it holds today. It will come down to targeting the right seats, running a superior ground game, and allocating resources appropriately rather than on white whales or races not winnable under midterm dynamics. You can read about just how bad those midterm dynamics are here:
Even if the GOP executes that plan perfectly and only focuses on seats that are winnable, the historical odds still heavily favor Democrats taking over the House next January. The silver lining here is that, thanks to extensive gerrymandering in red and blue states alike, neither party has a high ceiling nor a low floor. I suspect strongly that the winner of the House majority will hold somewhere between 220-229 seats (218 needed for majority). With all of these factors at play, I still give Democrats a 75/25 edge to flip the House - which is 12% lower probability than history would give them to do it based on historical returns. Bettors on Polymarket favor them even more than I do:
That’s the good news.
The bad news comes if and when Virginia’s tyrannical legislature and governor succeed in ramming through a special amendment next Tuesday, April 21, which would sidestep the state’s independent redistricting commission and create a congressional map likely to yield a 10 to 1 Democrat advantage in U.S. House seats. As things stand today, Democrats hold 6 of the state’s 11 districts; if the district lines don’t change, I have Democrats down for 5 guaranteed, with Republicans at 3 guaranteed, and 3 more up for grabs - all GOP defenses. Either way, 8 to 3 seems to be the worst case scenario as things stand today, with 7 to 4 Democrat the most likely outcome.
That all changes if this amendment passes next week - and would move my forecast to an overwhelming Democrat likelihood to flip the House majority. Passage of the amendment via special election, and with the results being upheld in the Supreme Court (which could technically still strike it down after the fact), would result in the most extreme gerrymander in the United States in a state Kamala Harris couldn’t even win by six points.
So, will it pass?
ANALYSIS
Everyone putting money down on the Virginia referendum is gambling in the purest form and throwing money at the wall. This is a tough outcome to peg, unlike the Virginia gubernatorial race last year which was always going to the party not in the White House as it has 12 of 13 times since 1977. There is no party registration in Virginia, so all anyone has to go on right now are polls. We all know how polls go.
Want to be optimistic for Republicans? Here’s a February poll from Roanoke College showing NO (the good guys in this race) leading 52% to 44%. Want to see a counterpoint? Here’s The Washington Post off the top rope with a 52% to 47% poll favoring YES. Keep in mind, however, that the yes-favoring poll lands within the margin of error and signifies a dead heat.
Clearly, the polling is inconclusive, like it almost always is. I will only ever care about polling when it is overwhelming and consistent, or when cross-tabs show a persistent trend the top lines can’t fudge. With polling unreliable for this race, that gives us great news. It means we have a ballgame on our hands. What are the real facts?
X account “Josh” (@jrl_josh) is a great one to follow for the duration of this special election. He spoon-feeds his audience with daily maps and data showing exactly where the votes are coming from. Here’s yesterday’s update:
The GOP districts, per Josh, have a raw turnout edge of +46,097 over the Democrat districts, or +4.7%.
Here is how these districts voted in 2024 for the U.S. House - a Democrat margin of +3.8% - two points to the right of the Trump-Harris margin (important):
With the lone exception of VA-4, all Democrat districts are lagging GOP-won districts. VA-3, centered on Newport News in the southeast and 43% black, couldn’t give a hoot in hell about this election, and sits over 16,000 ballots behind the next most terrible turnout, VA-8 (Alexandria, Arlington, and Falls Church).
But even if the red districts are running ahead, aren’t there still enough Democrats to get the job done?
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Captain K's Corner to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.