Wrap on 2024's "Leaners" and Introduction to "Deciders"
Topic: 2024 Election
Author’s Note: To read the wrap for “safe electoral votes” and the introduction to “leaners,” go here.
Leaners
The leaners in the 2024 election represent the bridge between safe electoral votes - electoral votes I expect to be decided by at least 10% (or undoubtedly a safe bet for either party to carry even if I overstate the margin as “safe”) - and the states I expect to decide the election, which I call “deciders.”
The individual breakdowns for the “leaners” can be found at these links:
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
Leaners differ from safe electoral votes in that I expect the margins to be within 10% for either side as of the time of my initial analysis, and that I find it possible for the prediction for the winner to change if certain criteria are met (for example, RFK, Jr., splitting the Democrat coalition in New Mexico may change my prediction there).
Also, while Minnesota is worth as many electoral votes as Nevada and New Hampshire combined, I don’t consider it a “decider,” because I believe if Trump carries Minnesota with all its built-in election fraud and its recent history of being consistently left of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, I would expect Trump to be sitting on a national landslide anyway. The same goes for Virginia. Here are my margins for leaners.
Deciders
Assuming the leaners land where expected, especially those with large electoral vote tallies, these states will determine which nominee gets 270 or more electoral votes:
The decisive states are Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
81 electoral votes spread over 7 states will determine the winner of this year’s election. In this next phase of my analysis, I will update any previous prediction as needed, but will be focusing primarily on various aspects and degrees of political calculus that will ultimately determine how these states - complete with their considerable levels of corruption - will land.
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