Captain my immediate reaction to his prediction was that it's utter bullshit and an obvious attempt to boost Kamala. With the NY sentencing delayed until after the election the dems are running out of "chess" pieces on their board.
Another in the long line of fraudulently designed, and sinisterly executed polls. It’s only a “move the goalposts “ gimmick unless you show your work under each key like you did. These keys are manufactured to be vague, just like Kamala’s word salads
Totally agree. We DO have a "military engagement," just not with bullets but with dollars and it IS an issue; the ONE major Cackles/Rutabaga government initiative, whatever that green thing was, was an abysmal failure; scandal??? I'd say the botched Afghan withdrawal is a horrible scandal, Hunter Biteme affects Cackles. This idiot got lucky a couple of times in the past and had one fraudulent election.
I almost stopped reading Lichtman's latest iteration of his model at 'No primary contest: True for Harris'.
Really? IN WHAT WORLD?!
So forcing out the guy who did go through a primary and taking his place last minute qualifies as 'no primary contest'? Literally spoken, true: Harris had no primary contest...
But even Biden's primary contest is very shaky: the DNC forced out Kennedy, and made life very hard for the other opposing candidates, often with very questionable moves and outright deceit that deprived many Democrat voters of a voice in the matter. Biden was chosen, and Biden would be the nominee, with as strong and unified a process possible to show how 'strong' candidate Biden would be to seek reelection.
I understand the value of this benchmark in the series: the stronger the candidate, the less of a primary battle there will be. Look at Trump's primary: complete steamrolling over a wide and very active field of candidates, with a series of open debates. The DNC fully controlled and scripted their own primary. Remember how they stole Florida by having the Florida DNC chapter submit to the state Election Officials only Biden's name as a candidate, automatically suspending the primary vote in the state as a result of there only being 1 candidate, while several others were actively campaigning and counting on a proper say in the Florida primary, such as Dean Philips, or Marianne Williamson? Biden even lost in American Samoa, to Jason Palmer, which is the first time an incumbent president loses a state in a primary since 1980.
Where many can remember how Bernie Sanders was pushed out of the primary race, this time around Dean Phillips sounded the alarm, early on. Dean Phillips, from Minnesota, resigned from all his leadership functions within the Democrat Party, and submitted his candidacy for the presidency in the primaries. In his mind, the polls and other signs were overly clear: the way things were going, Biden was slated to lose the elections. He tried to convince individual people within the leadership of his party to submit a counter-candidacy, and called on Biden to keep the honor to himself, resign, and to pass on the torch. When that did not work out, he submitted his own candidacy, at the cost of all credit and goodwill within the DNC.
Not just Phillips, arguably a smaller fry within the Democratic world, but Robert Kennedy Jr., as well, a big name from a foundational dynasty within the DNC!
Biden, while indeed being helped by him being the incumbent president stepping up for reelection, had a very weak primary, marred by serious lawfare against opposing candidates and other irregularities. This did not bode well for candidate Biden, even before his disastrous debate performance. People knew, even if not openly acknowledged yet. Which is why Kennedy and then Dean Phillips stepped up, trying to warn their fellow Democrats of the inherent problems and weaknesses of a candidate Biden.
Yes, that is Biden, this model is about Harris: can we really separate Harris from Biden? Kamala was seen and denounced as an albatross around Biden's neck, as a problem, as inept, very weak, up to the moment Biden lost his bid with his debate performance. The only reason she managed to get the nomination, was through the 'handover' by Biden (? Do we even know yet who sent that resignation letter with the endorsement of Harris?), focusing the party immediately from himself to Kamala Harris.
While technically true that Harris had no primary contest, this answer Lichtman gave goes so completely against what this particular point aims to gauge, that it baffles the mind. The conclusion is inescapable, as you said: this year's version of Lichtman's model is a cynical political exercise to prop up Harris, NOT a serious exploration of who is likely to win.
Captain my immediate reaction to his prediction was that it's utter bullshit and an obvious attempt to boost Kamala. With the NY sentencing delayed until after the election the dems are running out of "chess" pieces on their board.
Another in the long line of fraudulently designed, and sinisterly executed polls. It’s only a “move the goalposts “ gimmick unless you show your work under each key like you did. These keys are manufactured to be vague, just like Kamala’s word salads
Totally agree. We DO have a "military engagement," just not with bullets but with dollars and it IS an issue; the ONE major Cackles/Rutabaga government initiative, whatever that green thing was, was an abysmal failure; scandal??? I'd say the botched Afghan withdrawal is a horrible scandal, Hunter Biteme affects Cackles. This idiot got lucky a couple of times in the past and had one fraudulent election.
I almost stopped reading Lichtman's latest iteration of his model at 'No primary contest: True for Harris'.
Really? IN WHAT WORLD?!
So forcing out the guy who did go through a primary and taking his place last minute qualifies as 'no primary contest'? Literally spoken, true: Harris had no primary contest...
But even Biden's primary contest is very shaky: the DNC forced out Kennedy, and made life very hard for the other opposing candidates, often with very questionable moves and outright deceit that deprived many Democrat voters of a voice in the matter. Biden was chosen, and Biden would be the nominee, with as strong and unified a process possible to show how 'strong' candidate Biden would be to seek reelection.
I understand the value of this benchmark in the series: the stronger the candidate, the less of a primary battle there will be. Look at Trump's primary: complete steamrolling over a wide and very active field of candidates, with a series of open debates. The DNC fully controlled and scripted their own primary. Remember how they stole Florida by having the Florida DNC chapter submit to the state Election Officials only Biden's name as a candidate, automatically suspending the primary vote in the state as a result of there only being 1 candidate, while several others were actively campaigning and counting on a proper say in the Florida primary, such as Dean Philips, or Marianne Williamson? Biden even lost in American Samoa, to Jason Palmer, which is the first time an incumbent president loses a state in a primary since 1980.
Where many can remember how Bernie Sanders was pushed out of the primary race, this time around Dean Phillips sounded the alarm, early on. Dean Phillips, from Minnesota, resigned from all his leadership functions within the Democrat Party, and submitted his candidacy for the presidency in the primaries. In his mind, the polls and other signs were overly clear: the way things were going, Biden was slated to lose the elections. He tried to convince individual people within the leadership of his party to submit a counter-candidacy, and called on Biden to keep the honor to himself, resign, and to pass on the torch. When that did not work out, he submitted his own candidacy, at the cost of all credit and goodwill within the DNC.
Not just Phillips, arguably a smaller fry within the Democratic world, but Robert Kennedy Jr., as well, a big name from a foundational dynasty within the DNC!
Biden, while indeed being helped by him being the incumbent president stepping up for reelection, had a very weak primary, marred by serious lawfare against opposing candidates and other irregularities. This did not bode well for candidate Biden, even before his disastrous debate performance. People knew, even if not openly acknowledged yet. Which is why Kennedy and then Dean Phillips stepped up, trying to warn their fellow Democrats of the inherent problems and weaknesses of a candidate Biden.
Yes, that is Biden, this model is about Harris: can we really separate Harris from Biden? Kamala was seen and denounced as an albatross around Biden's neck, as a problem, as inept, very weak, up to the moment Biden lost his bid with his debate performance. The only reason she managed to get the nomination, was through the 'handover' by Biden (? Do we even know yet who sent that resignation letter with the endorsement of Harris?), focusing the party immediately from himself to Kamala Harris.
While technically true that Harris had no primary contest, this answer Lichtman gave goes so completely against what this particular point aims to gauge, that it baffles the mind. The conclusion is inescapable, as you said: this year's version of Lichtman's model is a cynical political exercise to prop up Harris, NOT a serious exploration of who is likely to win.
Bootlichtman
What utter nonsense. A “model” that looks like it’s been invented by a third grader.