Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. These quick estimates are for House races rumored to be in play or that may have simply slipped through the cracks over a long stretch of forecasting races.
I have now completed individual assessments for the 24 races I consider decisive in 2024. That is to say they are the most likely seats that will determine the winner of the coming majority. Still, with so many races, 435 in all, upsets can happen. Here is how I see the races in these 10 seats I think are on the bubble:
CO-4
Boebert (R-inc.) vs. Laubacher (D)
Party registration has slipped left from 2024, but is still R+18.3% in a district covering rural eastern Colorado
Laubacher is flush with cash and running in a state with Universal Mail-In Voting, which gives her a chance to sneak up
RATING
75/25 Boebert (R) - too rural and too red
FL-14
Beltran (R) vs. Castor (D-inc.)
GOP leads party registration by more than 9 points in seat redrawn to push Castor out of Congress
Early voting not as impressive in Florida as hoped for, leaving Castor some optimism as a well-known incumbent
RATING
60/40 Beltran (R) - Florida Republicans have all the momentum, and I feel good about their odds of flipping the toughest seat, FL-25. That means they should get FL-14, too.
FL-22
Askar (R) vs. Dandiya (D)
FL-22 is redrawn and includes a heavy Republican vote from Collier County and moderate portions of Palm Beach and Broward County; district is more than 8 points in favor of GOP by registration
Dandiya’s hopes rest on low turnout on Election Day for GOP
RATING
65/35 Askar (R) - Askar has a big financial edge and isn’t facing the incumbent.
IA-2
Mitchell (R) vs. James (D)
This seat came open due to Ashley Hinson’s run for Senate
Republicans have added to their voter registration lead in this Trump +10 seat since November 2024
RATING
65/35 Mitchell (R) - I have Democrats favored in IA-1 and IA-3, but IA-2 is a bridge too far as Democrats have collapsed after a fast start in early voting.
NH-1
DiLorenzo (R) vs. Shaheen (D)
Seat open for new representative thanks to Pappas running for U.S. Senate
Daughter of Senator Shaheen is Democrat nominee and will benefit from mother’s political network, but DiLorenzo has the funds to make this race interesting
RATING
65/35 Shaheen (D) - New Hampshire likes to favor the out-party, especially when Republicans are in the White House. Shaheen’s name recognition will likely carry her across.
OH-1
Conroy (R) vs. Landsman (D-inc.)
Ohio legislature didn’t cut deep enough into the new OH-1 boundaries, otherwise they could have guaranteed a flip
Landsman is a tough incumbent in a district Trump won narrowly; he is not invincible, because urban turnout is terrible in Ohio - including in Cincinnati (the heart of the district)
RATING
60/40 Landsman (D) - Landsman would have a considerably higher rating if Cincinnati turnout wasn’t poor heading into Election Day.
PA-1