Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. This forecast/prediction contains proprietary mapping data beyond the paywall information prepared by the author for analytical purposes.
I. The Race
Jay Feely (Republican) is a former NFL kicker and TV sports analyst now trying his hand at politics. He is looking to replace David Schweikert, who is leaving AZ-1 open after eight terms in the U.S. House because he decided to run for governor and get absolutely destroyed by Andy Biggs.
Amish Shah (Democrat) is a physician and former member of the Arizona House of Representatives. He failed to unseat Schweikert in 2024 and, although he has a reputation as a moderate from the legislature, has recently cozied up to many DSA-adjacent figures and positions.
II. District Geography
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District (AZ-1) occupies the northeastern corner of Maricopa County, including affluent cities like Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, and Fountain Hills, as well as segments of northeast Phoenix, which are more favorable for Democrats.
Despite its considerable Republican voter registration advantage, this district’s boundaries have been tough for President Trump and aligned Republicans for the past decade.
Presidential Margins
Practically everyone reading this will agree that the 2020 election in Arizona warped a lot of figures, including the margin in what is now AZ-1. Still, the Trump margins for all three of his races run far to the left of the GOP registration advantages for each year, and are mostly linked to GOP defectors in swanky places like Scottsdale and Paradise Valley, which featured nice gains for Trump in 2024 (which I will dive into in Section X).
Key Statistics
69.9% White, 16.4% Hispanic
91.5% Urban, 8.5% Rural
III. Market Assessment
Polymarket bettors have wagered heavily on Shah, whose shares are clearly overpriced.
IV. History
Prior to the 2022 election, most of the territory of what is now AZ-1 was called AZ-6, represented by Schweikert. Trump won those boundaries even in the 2020 election by roughly 4 points. The redistricting of Arizona post-2020 cut out more Republican-friendly areas of north Phoenix and replaced them with more Democrat-friendly neighborhoods closer to downtown, hence the reason for paper-thin margins this decade. Here is how the old boundaries, which still included the affluent establishment Republican areas in the district today, shifted from 2016 to 2018:
Despite being an overwhelmingly Republican district at the time, the 2016-18 shift met all the warning signs prominent that year. Trump underperformed Schweikert in the district thanks to the McCain feud and his perceived lack of Republican “street cred” in 2016, and in 2018, the margin essentially matched Trump’s. This was good enough to hold the seat, but the gaps in KS-3, CO-6, and other suburban seats weren’t enough to give the GOP incumbents room to breathe.
This anti-Trump trend continued through the awful 2020 election, when Schweikert held on by just 4.4% against Hiral Tipirnini. In two races since the seat has been redrawn, Schweikert’s margins have been equally uncomfortable:
2022 +0.8%
2024 +3.8%
I would have expected Schweikert to have a larger margin in 2022, a GOP House popular vote midterm victory, than I would have thought he’d get in 2024, when he won by 3.8% against Shah; this seems like a positive sign that Shah is seen as out of touch with the district and not likely to capture a tailwind like the one we saw in 2018 (which Republicans also didn’t see as vulnerable, and spend accordingly).
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Both parties had seriously contested primaries, and Democrats have the worst fallout.