Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. This forecast/prediction contains proprietary mapping data beyond the paywall information prepared by the author for analytical purposes.
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I. The Race
Gabe Evans (Republican) is seeking a second term in the U.S. House after upsetting Yadira Caraveo in 2024. That outcome was one of the biggest GOP surprises and instrumental in winning a very narrow majority. Evans had been a police officer and member of the Colorado House of Representatives prior to becoming a Congressman.
Manny Rutinel (Democrat) is also a former member of the Colorado House of Representatives; he was appointed in 2023 to fill the vacancy in District 32, and won his only full term in 2024 by running unopposed in an overwhelmingly Democrat district.
They are joined on the ticket by Libertarian candidate David Wood, who looks to play spoiler for Evans or Rutinel.
II. District Geography
Colorado’s 8th Congressional District (CO-8) is north of Denver proper, and includes the most populated portion of Adams and Weld Counties, as well as a tiny sliver of Larimer County. The district is highly urbanized/suburbanized and has a median household income of over $100,000.
The district has a surprisingly high concentration of Hispanics (38.5% of the population), and GOP gains in 2024 were key to flipping the seat with Trump and Evans, whose grandfather was a Mexican immigrant, on the ticket. Trump had carried the district in 2016 thanks to a better suburban white share and a high third-party vote share sandbagging Clinton, then lost it in 2020 thanks to suburban drift (and mail-in balloting on steroids). He won it back thanks to the Hispanic gains throughout mostly Adams County.
Presidential Margins
Key Statistics
51.7% White, 38.5% Hispanic
III. Market Assessment
Polymarket bettors give Evans very little shot at holding onto the seat, and are overvaluing Rutinel based on polling, Colorado’s overall drift, and the view that CO-8 is one of the most vulnerable Republican-held seats.
IV. History
We lose the trail on the turf that has become CO-8 beginning with the 2022 election. Colorado gained a seat thanks to population growth, and with it, split up the old CO-6 to be even more favorable to Democrats, and divided Weld County (with the remainder in Lauren Boebert’s CO-4).
When Jason Crow knocked out Mike Coffman in 2018, the warning signs had been there. While Coffman held the seat in 2016, Trump lost it by 9 points. In 2018, the House margin caught up with the previous presidential margin, and the impact was felt all throughout suburban Denver - particularly in Arapahoe and Adams Counties.
CO-6 has since been recut for Crow, and the new CO-8 eliminates Arapahoe County and readjusts for the slices of Adams, Larimer, and Weld Counties now making it up. In its first live test (2022), Democrats secured CO-8, but not by much:
Richard Ward, the Libertarian on the ballot, may have denied Barbara Kirkmeyer the win in 2022, thereby giving Evans the pathway to flip the seat with Trump on the ballot making major gains with Hispanics:
Here is a real-life example from a precinct in Adams County near Thornton with a 57% Hispanic population showing these minority gains:
Trump lost it by 16.8%, improved from the 35.0% margin of defeat in 2016. That is a 228-vote improvement at the top of the ticket for overall margin, and similar gains are seen all throughout the district (especially in Adams County).
The biggest area of concern with the seat is the year (GOP president midterm) and the type of electorate (suburban, with a big swing in 2018 documented).
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Evans ran unopposed in the GOP primary, and has no work to do for consolidating the party.