Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. This forecast/prediction contains proprietary mapping data beyond the paywall information prepared by the author for analytical purposes.
I. The Race
Scott Singer (Republican) is a south Florida native and attorney who served three terms as the mayor of Boca Raton. He chairs the Mayors’ Council of the America First Policy Institute and is looking to represent the newly redrawn FL-25 in Congress.
Jared Moskowitz (Democrat) was elected to represent the old FL-23 in 2022 and is one of the smartest Democrats in Congress. He was twice appointed to special roles by Governor DeSantis before entering Congress; once he was there, he supported the DOGE push to maximize government efficiency and was part of the bipartisan task force investigating the assassination attempt against President Trump.
II. District Geography
Florida’s 25th Congressional District (FL-25) isn’t even in existence yet; this is the first General Election held under these boundaries following Florida’s 2026 redistricting effort that looks to give Republicans up to four additional U.S. House seats. These efforts upended Moskowitz from his old boundaries and prompted him to file for the race for this new FL-25.
This district looks like a skinny, vertical sliver spanning three counties - Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. It avoids the major cities of those counties (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach, respectively) and includes cities like Miami Beach, Boca Raton, and other communities situated along the shoreline.
These boundaries create a district that reminds me a lot of the new TX-34, another decisive U.S. House seat that is thought to be competitive because of the major progress President Trump made with Latino voters. The only difference is that in South Florida, you’re talking about Venezuelans, Cubans, and Puerto Ricans more than Mexicans in Texas. On paper, these boundaries went red enough for President Trump that they seem like automatic GOP pickups; a closer look at the trends and down ballot impacts suggests otherwise even though this new district is much whiter (non-Hispanic, anyway) than TX-34 is.
Presidential Margins
In his 1.2% statewide win of then-battleground Florida in 2016, Trump lost these boundaries by 12.3%. Then, with progress made in a 3.4% statewide win in 2020, Trump lost them by 5.7% - narrowly missing out on a flip of Miami-Dade County. Trump’s huge margins in 2024 everywhere in the Sunshine State brought new optimism for another GOP district in South Florida; his +8.9% margin in the new boundaries sits 21.2% to the right of where it was in 2016.
Singer’s challenge, not being named Donald J. Trump or Ron DeSantis himself, will be to hold the Trump coalition together against the Democrat-blowing headwinds of a midterm - especially against a Democrat who notably displays no Trump Derangement Syndrome. Both candidates are Jewish in a 25% Jewish district.
Key Statistics
54% White, 28% Hispanic, 18% Black/Other
III. Market Assessment
Despite the major progress made within these new boundaries, Polymarket bettors favor Moskowitz four-to-one.
IV. History
The district as presently drawn for the 2026 election was broken up over other districts in 2018, most notably what was then FL-25 in the north end of the district, and what was then FL-27 in the southern end of the district, extending down into parts of core Miami. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart held his seat in FL-25 by an impressive margin of 21 points, only down a few notches from 2016.
2018’s FL-27 is the portion of the present district (FL-25) that gave Republicans fits. The retirement of GOP Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who won by 9.8% in 2016, left an open seat for Democrat Donna Shalala and Republican Maria Elvira Salazar (the amnesty queen now representing today’s FL-27) to battle over. Shalala won by six points, representing a 15.8% swing from 2016.
Moskowitz won his current seat (FL-23 before the change) by 4.8% in 2022, then again by the exact same margin in 2024:
Trump only lost those boundaries by 1.9%.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Fortunately for Democrats, especially in a state trending as hard to the right as Florida, Moskowitz soundly defeated radical left-winger Oliver Larkin in the Democrat primary.
