Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File.
A special one-year offer to become a paid subscriber is available for 18 more days:
I. The Race
Jon Ossoff (Democrat) is seeking his second term in the U.S. Senate, having first been elected in a January 2021 runoff after the controversial November 2020 election held both Georgia Republican Senators under 50%. Ossoff is 39 and thought to be a contender for the 2028 (or future) Democrat presidential nomination.
Mike Collins (Republican) is finishing up his second term as the U.S. Representative of GA-10, a district covering parts of northeastern Georgia. His voter base is mostly rural and the district is not competitive.
II. State Profile
Georgia has recently become one of America’s most hotly contested battlegrounds and was carried by Donald Trump in 2024 by just 2.2%. Prior to the 2020 election, it had backed six consecutive GOP presidential candidates.
Demographic Statistics
53.2% White, 32.3% Black, 10.5% Hispanic
III. Market Assessment
Betting markets overwhelmingly favor Ossoff, as incumbent, against Collins.
IV. History
Warnock’s seat: Georgia, a former “Solid South” Democrat stronghold and the home of Jimmy Carter, was free of Republicans representing them in the U.S. Senate from the time of Reconstruction until 1981, when Mack Mattingly took office after having been elected in 1980. Mattingly only made it one term, but that seat was recaptured in 1992 by Paul Coverdell, who died in office and was replaced by a Democrat (thanks to a Democrat Governor). Republicans, in keeping with the new partisan loyalty to the GOP, recaptured the seat in 2004 and held it with two different Senators until Kelly Loeffler ran into the 2020 COVID election buzzsaw and dropped the seat to Raphael Warnock.
Ossoff’s seat: Republicans pried this seat from Democrats in the 2002 midterms, winning it three times before David Perdue got smacked in the face by mail-in ballots on November 3, 2020, prompting a runoff that Ossoff (along with Warnock for the other seat) won. It turns out that it wasn’t just Joe Biden needing every extra mail-in ballot that was counted after Election Day:
These seats have very strong correlation to Georgia’s presidential voting tendencies, which are presently extremely competitive.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results