Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File.
A special one-year offer to become a paid subscriber is available for 2 more days:
I. The Race
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Republican) is running for a fourth term in the U.S. House, and has won two of her three terms by insanely close margins. She had previously run for the seat when it was designated IA-2, but lost to Dave Loebsack all three times she was the GOP nominee. She finally got in when Loebsack retired.
Christina Bohannan (Democrat) is a former Iowa State Representative who is nearly as persistent as Miller-Meeks; Bohannan has lost to her two times in a row, and is confident that the third time will be a charm this November.
II. District Geography
Iowa’s 1st Congressional District (IA-1) is made up of the southeastern quadrant of the state. As you can see, it has undergone a drastic political reformation since 2008:
The district resembles northern Illinois and Wisconsin politically far more than it resembles Missouri or Nebraska, which influence the western half of the state. Obama carried the current boundaries by 16 points in 2008, and then by 14 in 2012 as Iowa inched toward Romney in a statewide loss. Here were President Trump’s margins:
2016 Trump +3%
2020 Trump +2.9%
2024 Trump +8.5%
The political hurdles for Republicans in the district, especially normal Republicans like Miller-Meeks without Trump’s white working class superpowers, are Johnson County and the University of Iowa (Harris +37.8%), and Scott County, which contains Davenport. Racial demographics appear favorable but there is a long-standing blue-collar Democrat faction here.
Key Statistics
83.4% White, 5.6% Hispanic, 4.5% Black
66.4% Urban, 33.6% Rural
III. Market Assessment
Ouch. Looks a lot like NE-2, with bettors not expecting much out of Miller-Meeks.
IV. History
Democrat Dave Loebsack secured one of the party’s biggest upsets in 2006, knocking off incumbent Republican Jim Leach. He went on to defend the seat six more times, which included three wins over Miller-Meeks (including one in which he beat her like a drum in 2008). Without Trump on the ticket in 2018, Loebsack expanded his margin by 4.8% from the previous presidential election:
Once Loebsack finally retired, Miller-Meeks came back into the picture and rode a Trump statewide win to a razor close victory over Democrat Rita Hart - a margin of just six votes out of nearly 400,000 cast.
Her first meeting with Bohannan occurred in the 2022 GOP House takeover, and Miller-Meeks rode Kim Reynolds’ incumbent coattails to a 6.8% margin. One might think that with Trump destined to win Iowa by more than 13 points and IA-1 by 8.5%, Miller-Meeks would have another easy election against Bohannan:
That assumption would constitute a wild miss; Miller-Meeks secured her seat in a very narrow GOP majority by 799 votes out of more than 400,000 cast. She has won two of the closest U.S. House races this century in a span of just three elections. This does not bode well for her in a year that is fundamentally more favorable to Democrats than a cycle in which Republicans are out of the White House.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results