Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File.
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I. The Race
Roger Marshall (Republican) is seeking his second term in the U.S. Senate, having won his seat by a +11.4% margin in 2020 - shy of President Trump’s concurrent margin that year of +14.6%. Marshall, a physician, served in the U.S. House for two terms immediately prior to his Senate run.
Adam Hamilton (Democrat) is a woke Methodist megachurch pastor and author seeking to ride the “centrist” label to victory.
II. State Profile
Kansas hasn’t backed a Democrat for President since 1964, and hasn’t elected one to the U.S. Senate since sending George McGill to Washington, D.C., in 1932. It lies in the heart of Trump Country and has only one emerging political trouble spot - Johnson County. The shift in that county, which had been won by every GOP presidential nominee since 1920 until it flipped in 2020, cost the Republicans the KS-3 U.S. House seat in the 2018 suburban realignment (and in every election since). The population of agriculture-heavy western Kansas is heavily Latino, and trending toward the GOP.
Demographic Statistics
74.7% White, 12.7% Hispanic, 6.2% Black
III. Market Assessment
Markets consider Marshall the clear favorite, but Hamilton has a notable support base looking for an upset.
IV. History
Kansas notably switches between Republican and Democrat in gubernatorial races, as shown by Democrat Laura Kelly occupying the mansion right now; however, the line stops there. Lyndon Johnson’s national landslide in 1964 marks the last time Kansas sided with Democrats for the presidency, but you’d have to go back 32 years in time from there, as mentioned above, to find the last time they went blue for the Senate.
No race for Marshall’s seat in the past three decades has been closer than +10.6% (2014). Jerry Moran occupies the other seat, once held by Bob Dole. It hasn’t had a race closer than 10.6% since 1974, the year of the Watergate scandal and Nixon resignation. The 2014 Senate race won by Pat Roberts (Marshall’s predecessor) ran 11.1% left of the Romney 2012 presidential margin. Moran’s 2022 reelection ran 8.4% right of Trump’s 2020 margin, suggesting serious strength for incumbents (albeit in a favorable midterm year).
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results