Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File.
I. The Race
Aaron Flint (Republican) is a well-known radio talk-show host and Army veteran. He’s new to elected politics and looking to replace Ryan Zinke, who served MT-1 for two terms.
Sam Forstag (Democrat) is a union man and smokejumper running a populist Democrat campaign with limited animosity toward the Trump administration. Most of it is boilerplate red state Democrat campaign fluff, but he’s adamant about bleeding the wealthy dry with taxes. I’m not sure how that’s going to fly with all of the people who watched Yellowstone and took their money north for a dream estate.
II. District Geography
Montana’s 1st Congressional District (MT-1) is new. Montana’s population growth gave it a second seat in the U.S. House, and the at-large district it once had split in two. The people who drew the seat really failed Gerrymandering 101, because it is a tough district that could easily be lost in a Democrat wave year. It features all but a handful of Montana’s major cities - like Bozeman, Butte, Missoula, and Kalispell. All four of those except for Kalispell are trouble cities for the GOP that require high rural margins to override.
Bozeman is in Gallatin County. To provide an idea of how much the high tech development of this portion of Montana has hurt GOP margins, here’s a chart:
It has swung roughly 8 points left since 2012, and while not many raw votes have moved, the trajectory of Gallatin County (complete with an expanding tech industry and saddled with Montana State University) tracks like a standard Colorado urban area. Missoula County, home to the University of Montana, has provided Democrat presidential nominees with comfortable margins, although the GOP candidates normally park in the high 30s as a share of the vote. Outside of those areas, it’s cowboy country like the rest of Montana, with nice margins in places like Flathead County (Trump +33.8% in 2024) - home of some of the most amazing scenery anywhere in the world.
Presidential Margins
2016 Trump +12
2020 Trump +7
2024 Trump +11
Key Statistics
84.8% White, 4.4% Native American
III. Market Assessment
Despite the open seat and competitive nature of western Montana, Republican Flint remains a roughly two-to-one favorite on Polymarket.
IV. History
MT-1’s history, at least as an individual U.S. House seat, is new. Ryan Zinke, who is retiring from Congress, is the first person to represent the district. He served as Secretary of the Interior in Trump’s first administration and defeated Democrat Monica Tranel in 2022 by just 3.2% (less than 8,000 votes in margin). The two rematched in 2024, and Zinke expanded his margin to +7.7%; it is important to note that he rode the Trump train (which had a margin of +11%) to victory and ran 3.3% behind it.
For brevity’s sake, it is easy to understand why the president is rallying in Montana; it’s not for the U.S. Senate race.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
