Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. This forecast/prediction contains proprietary mapping data beyond the paywall information prepared by the author for analytical purposes.
I. The Race
Laurie Buckhout (Republican) is challenging Davis for a second time, but under new district boundaries in NC-1. She is a retired Army officer, and served in the Trump administration in 2025 as acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy.
Don Davis (Democrat) is a former Air Force officer who ran for the Democrats when G.K. Butterfield retired from Congress. He won NC-1 in 2022 by 4.8%, and barely held on by 1.7% with Trump on the ballot in 2024. He faces very difficult new boundaries in 2026 as he looks for a third term.
II. District Boundaries
North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District (NC-1) is the far northeastern district in the state, stretching from rural “Black Belt” counties north of Raleigh over to the Outer Banks on the Atlantic coast. It was redrawn in October 2025 by the North Carolina legislature and gave Wayne, Wilson, Lenoir, and Greene Counties to NC-3, while picking up six red counties, including Beaufort, Craven, and Carteret, home of the outstanding patriot Lynn Carraway - a loyal and dedicated reader of Captain K’s Corner.
The change is drastic, and the swap nets the Republican Party roughly 35,000 margin in a presidential election. Davis is swimming upstream against a massive wall of MAGA-trending counties while relying on overwhelming black turnout from rural counties struggling to hold population and keep turnout at reasonable levels.
Presidential Margins (new NC-1 boundaries)
2016 Trump +5
2020 Trump +7
2024 Trump +11
Key Statistics
48.1% White, 38.3% Black, 7.6% Hispanic
III. Market Assessment
Polymarket bettors appear stuck in the past and favor Davis in an absolute rout. Buckhout is a great value at her current price.
IV. History
Although districts change in composition from time to time, NC-1 has been a longstanding Democrat bastion. It hasn’t been held by a Republican since Democrats took it over in 1883. G.K. Butterfield held the seat for two decades before giving way to Davis. Now, thanks to the actions of the North Carolina legislature, Republicans have a great shot at finally taking it over despite Buckhout’s close call in 2024 under the old, far less friendly boundaries.
It is possible Buckhout had her bid spoiled by the libertarian, Tom Bailey; regardless, had she won, the legislature may not have carved out what looks to be a much more favorable seat. The recent history of this seat shows multiple competitive races owed to declining black turnout and reddening coastal counties. Now it will face a serious test with a much more fundamentally Republican electorate.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Davis did not face a primary challenge. The Republicans had a hard-fought battle with three serious candidates: