Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. This forecast/prediction contains proprietary mapping data beyond the paywall information prepared by the author for analytical purposes.
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I. The Race
Jennifer Balkcom (Republican) was selected by the Executive Committee of the NC-11 Republican Party to run as GOP nominee. This pick happened after the primary, and was required after incumbent Chuck Edwards decided he didn’t want to run again when it became clear he was going to be roasted over an ethics investigation into inappropriate workplace conduct with female staffers. Balkcom has served two terms in the North Carolina House of Representatives and is faced with a major burden of starting from scratch with less than 90 days to run the campaign.
Jamie Ager (Democrat) is one of the best Democrat candidates in the United States and is attempting to revive a brand of “mountain Democrat” that is practically extinct. He’s 47, a farmer, and the CEO of Hickory Nut Gap Farms in Fairview, North Carolina. His reported net worth is nearly $19 million.
II. District Geography
North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District (NC-11) is the westernmost district in the state. It hugs most of the state’s boundary with Tennessee and also borders South Carolina and Georgia. Asheville, a steadily growing leftist stronghold, is fully contained within the district, which is still dealing with the flood-related impacts of Hurricane Helene two years later.
President Trump carried the district, as it is presently drawn, all three times he ran - but by declining margins each time.
Presidential Margins
This decline in margin comes from much of the district being “maxed out,” meaning small counties with stagnant populations are no longer able to produce larger margins, and the expansion of Buncombe County (Asheville):
Whereas Trump lost Buncombe by 14.2%, a margin of 19,736 votes, in 2016, he lost it by 24.7% and 39,646 votes in 2024. There has also been a decline in GOP margin in mid-sized counties, such as Henderson, which Josh Stein carried against Mark Robinson in the 2024 gubernatorial race:
While it was worth +15,982 margin for Trump in 2016, it only gave him +10,136 in 2024. The North Carolina legislature would be wise to reassess these boundaries and split Asheville in two the next time they address the maps.
Key Statistics
82.3% White, 7.7% Hispanic
III. Market Assessment
Polymarket bettors understate Jennifer Balkcom’s position based on partisan strength alone, but accurately assess the risk of an Ager victory.
IV. History
NC-11 has a “blue dog” Democrat representing it in its recent history - former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler. Shuler fashioned himself as a conservative Democrat and was elected in the 2006 wave, then reelected twice. After his final reelection in 2010, the North Carolina House redrew the districts and cut away much of Asheville. Shuler read the room and retired from Congress.
Then came Mark Meadows, who was elected in 2012 and re-elected three times before resigning the seat to become President Trump’s Chief of Staff in 2020, as the COVID-19 fracas was underway. With the seat open, Madison Cawthorn prevailed in the GOP primary and won the seat at the age of 25, with President Trump on the ticket:
Cawthorn ran roughly even with Trump in the district (as it was drawn then), then proceeded to damage his reputation in Congress with careless behavior. Chuck Edwards exploited this and railed against Cawthorn’s morality, and ousted him in the 2022 GOP primary:
Edwards beat Democrat Jasmine Beach-Ferrara by 9.3% in the 2022 General Election, then cruised to reelection in 2024, outrunning Trump by 4.1% on the same ticket and in the same dirt:
All is well, right? A district with slight, but steady, leftward drift in a battleground state, but with a secure GOP incumbent that can win by more than 13 points?
Too bad Edwards couldn’t internalize all the admonishment he dished out to Cawthorn. Rather than buckling down on the work, he essentially wrote the “how to” guide for workplace harassment and generally making his staffers feel creeped out. The ethics investigation timeline didn’t drag out long enough to save Edwards’s campaign, so he dropped out of the race shortly after winning the primary.
And here we are, having to defend a relatively safe Republican seat in a midterm with little margin for error.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results