Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File.
A special one-year offer to become a paid subscriber is available for 7 more days:
I. The Race
Thomas Kean, Jr. (Republican), son of the former New Jersey governor of the same name, is running for his third term in the U.S. House. He earned his first win in 2022, knocking out Tom Malinowski, before winning reelection in 2024 by +5.4% as President Trump ran strong in New Jersey. His campaign is clouded by concerns over transparency and fitness for office.
Rebecca Bennett (Democrat) is a veteran with a background in healthcare, and she has focused her campaign on exactly that - one of the few issues Democrats poll ahead of Republicans on.
II. District Geography
New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District (NJ-7) is a large district in the northwestern corner of the state. It holds all of Hunterdon and Warren Counties, and segments of Morris, Somerset, Sussex, and Union Counties. The boundaries of the district were altered after the 2022 election, making NJ-7 slightly more Republican than it had been previously. Bridgewater Township (population 46,000) is the largest place in the district; Kean is from Westfield, Union County (population 31,000).
This district covers almost the entirety of northern New Jersey from west to east, and has a suburban nature to it given its proximity to New York City. It has trended away from President Trump since he won a +6 margin in 2016, despite a nice recovery in 2024.
Presidential Margins
2016 Trump +6
2020 Biden +4
2024 Trump +2
Key Statistics
70.8% White, 12.2% Hispanic, 8.3% Asian
85.8% Urban, 14.2% Rural
III. Market Assessment
Polymarket bettors are acting like Kean isn’t even a two-term incumbent, and consider Bennett an overwhelming favorite to flip the seat.
IV. History
NJ-7 hasn’t changed much over the past two decades, which makes it easy to analyze. Leonard Lance (GOP) took office in 2009, and carried his seat by +11.0% in 2016, with Donald Trump winning the district by six points. With suburban seats in 2016, a notable presidential underperformance from the Congressman’s margin was a telltale sign trouble was on the horizon in 2018. Sure enough, Lance was ousted by Tom Malinowski, whom Kean eventually put out of work himself.
Here is the swing in the old NJ-7 from 2016-18: