Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. This forecast/prediction contains proprietary mapping data beyond the paywall information prepared by the author for analytical purposes.
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I. The Race
Mike Lawler (Republican) is seeking his third term and is one of just three Republicans in the House from a district President Trump lost in 2024. He has a proven record of running and winning in a tough district and is thought of as one of the more skilled politicians in Congress.
Cait Conley (Democrat) is new to campaigning, although she played a big role in CISA’s 2024 election monitoring operations. Prior to working at CISA, she had a long career as an Army officer.
II. District Geography
New York’s 17th Congressional District (NY-17) is located in the Hudson Valley not far north of New York City. It contains all of Rockland and Putnam Counties, as well as the extremely dense northern portion of Westchester County and a small portion of southern Dutchess County. Rockland is a competitive county, Putnam is very red, and Westchester County is a Democrat stronghold. The variance in these counties requires candidates to be flexible on ideology and fast to react to changes in public mood.
This district contains some of the most interesting electoral factoids I’ve encountered in my analysis of the 2026 races, which I will analyze in detail in the summary of this forecast. Until recently, it has been noticeably out of reach for President Trump. That changed in 2024 with his improvements with minorities, religious groups, and in the urban and suburban areas of the northeast.
Presidential Margins
Harris wound up winning NY-17, but just barely at a +0.4% margin of victory. This marked a substantial improvement for Trump, who dropped it by 8.0% in 2016 and 10.0% in 2020, mail-in election and all. Similar shifts in margin in the 2024 presidential elections can be seen in adjacent spaces such as eastern Pennsylvania, throughout New Jersey, and in New York City itself. Lee Zeldin carried the district by four points in his 2022 gubernatorial bid.
Key Statistics
64.4% White, 19.9% Hispanic, 7.1% Black, 5.0% Asian
98.4% Urban, 1.6% Rural
III. Market Assessment
Conley, like most Democrats in decisive races, is favored on Polymarket - but not by a lot. That is an indicator of the competitive nature of this seat and Lawler’s quality as a candidate.
IV. History
Here in the beginning of the 21st century, NY-17 has remained consistently defined, with only slight variations. In elections held from 2002 through 2010, the seat includes parts of the Bronx, Rockland County, and Westchester County. From 2012 through 2020, races covered Rockland and a larger portion of Westchester. Democrats Eliot Engel, Nita Lowey, and Mondaire Jones held the seat.
As soon as the seat was redrawn to add Putnam County and the small piece of Dutchess, Mike Lawler won the seat. Here is his razor close result from 2022:
Impressively, running for reelection in a district Biden had carried by 10 points just four years earlier, Lawler put some serious distance between himself and Mondaire Jones, who had held the seat in a previous form but lost the nomination to face Lawler in 2022.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results