Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. This forecast/prediction contains proprietary mapping data beyond the paywall information prepared by the author for analytical purposes.
I. The Race
Max Miller (Republican), a former Marine Corps reservist, ran for the open OH-7 seat, which was redrawn for 2022; he had initially expected to face incumbent Anthony Gonzalez for the seat, but Gonzalez declined to run again in 2022 after he smelled a primary defeat as the cost for his Trump Derangement Syndrome. Miller won in the General Election and was reelected in 2024. His campaign is plagued by abuse allegations and divorce fallout with his ex-wife, who is the daughter of Ohio U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno.
Brian Poindexter (Democrat) is a 46-year-old union man and former Brook Park city council member. This is his first run for major office, and he’s running a “hard hat” campaign on the populist economic left while seeking to highlight Miller’s personal issues.
II. District Geography
Ohio’s 7th Congressional District (OH-7) was redrawn for the 2022 and 2024 elections, but because Ohio law required new maps for 2026 since the 2022/2024 maps were adopted without bipartisan support, the district underwent yet another makeover.
As it gears up for its first General Election test under the new boundaries, OH-7 consists of the southern portion of Cuyahoga County (dodging core Cleveland), all of Medina (Trump +24.7%) and Ashland (Trump +49.8%) Counties, and the northern portion of Wayne County. The previous boundaries lacked Ashland, but included all of Medina and the northern portion of Holmes County. Trump carried the old boundaries in 2024 by 11 points, closely matching the margin for the new district. Here are the last three presidential margins for boundaries as drawn today:
Trump’s margin sank in 2020 thanks to the swing of the Cuyahoga suburbs, and when they stiffened up for him in 2024, he ran his margin up another 1.5%. The new district is comparable to the old.
Key Statistics
86.4% White, 3.7% Hispanic
III. Market Assessment
Polymarket bettors are buying the Poindexter hype big-time. Miller’s unique issues have made him a tremendous liability for his party, but this is a massive overvaluation.
IV. History
There is no previous history for these exact boundaries in a U.S. House race, but since the presidential margins closely match and the district was only nominally redrawn, it makes sense to review Miller’s two previous performances.
In 2022, after notching the GOP nomination, Miller rode a 2022 House popular vote victory to a +10.7% victory over Matthew Diemer.
Miller then secured a +15.0% margin in his 2024 reelection, although an independent candidate skewed the margins by taking a lot of the vote:
Either way, in two favorable conditions (a midterm House popular vote win and a large presidential win), Miller ran closely aligned to the district’s presidential baselines. His seat, with the GOP looking strong in the Midwest, wouldn’t be imperiled this year if not for his very serious personal issues, which I’ll discuss later in this piece. OH-7 would likely be carried by Miller this year by 6-8 points under normal circumstances.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Miller, keeping his issues close to the chest, ran unopposed in the GOP primary when in fact Republican voters should have been engaged in choosing his replacement. Poindexter ran in a crowded field for the Democrats and won with a plurality of the vote: