Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. This forecast/prediction contains proprietary mapping data beyond the paywall information prepared by the author for analytical purposes.
I. The Race
Derek Merrin (Republican) is a former member of the Ohio House of Representatives who is locked into a 2024 rematch with Kaptur, but this time with much friendlier district boundaries at his disposal.
Marcy Kaptur (Democrat) is the longest-tenured woman in Congress, and seeking a twenty-third term after barely surviving Merrin’s surge in President Trump’s statewide romp in 2024. For perspective, I turn 42 next month; Kaptur was wrapping up her first term when I was born.
II. District Geography
Ohio’s 9th Congressional District (OH-9) occupies the northwest corner of the Buckeye State and contains Toledo as its major metro area. These boundaries have been redrawn since the 2024 election thanks to the requirements of Ohio law, and OH-9 seems to be the seat in the bipartisan arrangement that was most gift-wrapped for Republicans to take over. OH-13, held by Democrat Emilia Sykes, was close in 2024 but made bluer by the redistricting commission, and OH-1 covering the southwest corner and Cincinnati was weakened (for Democrats) a little, but probably not enough to tip over in the 2026 cycle.
The new map removed the following from OH-9:
Sandusky County
The northeastern edge of Wood County closest to Toledo
The map added these counties:
Henry County (Trump +46.5%)
Paulding County (Trump +55.9%)
Putnam County (Trump +68.5%)
Trump won the boundaries of OH-9 as they were in 2024 by 7 points. His performance was not quite enough to get Merrin past the entrench Kaptur.
Here are the approximate recent presidential margins for the new boundaries:
2016 Trump +5.0%
2020 Trump +6.0%
2024 Trump +11.0%
Key Statistics
74.5% White, 12.0% Black, 7.2% Hispanic
86.0% Urban, 14.0% Rural
III. Market Assessment
Despite the geographical disadvantage, Polymarket bettors are still throwing in with Kaptur - a heavy favorite in the market.
IV. History
To write a history of OH-9 in its various shapes and descriptions over the past four decades would essentially be to write a biography of Kaptur. She has hogged the seat for far too long as a career politician posing as a public servant.
Prior to the 2024 race, and thanks to much friendlier ideologies and boundaries, Kaptur never had a close call. She often won by Pelosi margins, taking over 70% of the vote. In 2024, with Trump on his way to a +11.2% win statewide in Ohio, Kaptur barely held the line against Merrin:
2,382 votes, just 0.7%, separated her from her GOP challenger. Tom Pruss, the libertarian on the ticket, and given who is voting Democrat in OH-9, I’d bet his presence on the ticket hurt Merrin the most. Either way, Merrin is back for round two, and this time in a district with four more points of presidential margin at his back.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Kaptur, unlike many entrenched Democrats, faced no challenger in the Democrat primary.