Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File.
I. The Race
Jon Husted (Republican) is serving out the Senate term won by Vice President JD Vance in 2022, and under Ohio law is required to stand for this special election for the completion of the term. Before serving in the Senate, Husted was Ohio’s Lieutenant Governor.
Sherrod Brown (Democrat) is looking to make his way back to the Senate after having won three terms there (2006, 2012, 2018) before losing to Senator Bernie Moreno in 2024, when President Trump carried the state by 11.2%. If Brown wins, he will have to run again in 2028.
II. State Profile
Ohio was once the premier bellwether state in presidential politics. From 1896 through 2016, Ohio failed to vote for the winner of the presidency only twice - in 1944 and 1960. We all know the 2020 election had its issues, but I tend to believe Ohio would have stuck with its record as an accurate predictor in a fair race.
Kamala Harris won 6 of 88 counties in Ohio’s 2024 presidential elections. Only five of them have meaningful vote counts:
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
Franklin County (Columbus)
Hamilton County (Cincinnati)
Lucas County (Toledo)
Summit County (Akron)
Contrast the above results with how the map looked in 2008:
The interior of Ohio, while won by McCain, was mostly just pink. Key Trump-backing counties in the northeast, such as Mahoning County, were still plenty blue. Despite being a two-time Obama state, Trump had no trouble carrying the Buckeye State all three times he ran:
2016 Trump +8.1%
2020 Trump +8.0%
2024 Trump +11.2%
The key to understanding Ohio in 2026 is to first recognize it is nothing like the state Brown first won election to the Senate in back in 2006.
Key Statistics
69.3% White, 15.5% Black, 8.5% Hispanic
III. Market Assessment
Polymarket bettors give Brown better than two-to-one odds to unseat Husted and return to the Senate.
IV. History
The seat Brown currently seeks has been in Republican hands since 1998, when George Voinovich won the seat and held it for two terms. He gave way to Rob Portman, who won it in 2010 and 2016 before stepping away for Vance:
It is important to note that Vance, running for an open seat, prevailed over Tim Ryan - who once had impeccable blue collar Democrat credentials that far surpass those Brown seeks to impute to himself.
Brown held the other Ohio Senate seat for three terms after knocking off none other than Mike DeWine, Ohio’s current Republican governor and resident Trump hater in the mold of John Kasich, in 2006. He was reelected in 2012, and again in 2018 with a high turnout:
Those bullish on Brown’s chances today will point to a swing of 14.9% away from the 2016 presidential margin to Brown in 2018, but Ohio is much different today than it was even then and has gone more the way of Indiana than it has remained in the mold of “Trumplican” states like Pennsylvania or Michigan. Just in the map above, it will be difficult for Brown to carry northeastern counties and avoid the crimson-shaded margins of the interior his opponent is likely to pile up.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
