Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. This forecast/prediction contains proprietary mapping data beyond the paywall information prepared by the author for analytical purposes.
I. The Race
Ryan Mackenzie (Republican) is running for reelection after having unseated three-term Democrat incumbent Susan Wild in November 2024 with a margin of +1.0%. Mackenzie had been a member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives prior to his run.
Bob Brooks (Democrat) is a local recruit who has never pursued office before. He is a retired firefighter and local businessman from Bethlehem and is running a pro-union campaign and trying to tie Trump’s popular trade policies to current inconveniences voters face.
II. District Geography
Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District covers the Lehigh Valley and is made up of all of Carbon, Lehigh, and Northampton Counties, plus a tiny edge of Monroe County. The rest of Monroe County belongs to the neighboring district, PA-8, which is another decisive seat I profiled last week. Northampton County is a working-class county that, along with Erie County, has emerged as a key bellwether in statewide politics (especially in presidential elections). Previously, Luzerne County had aligned with the winner of every presidential election from 1936 through 2016, but that streak came to a halt when Trump won it in 2020 and (supposedly) didn’t carry Pennsylvania’s electoral votes.
Presidential Margins
This district, along with the entirety of eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, and northern New Jersey, is in the midst of a strong Republican realignment. With Wild now unseated, Mackenzie may run stronger, especially if Trump’s coalition shows up this year. Notably, PA-7 includes a much higher representation of Hispanic voters than outsiders may expect when thinking of the Lehigh Valley.
Key Statistics
68.6% White, 19.1% Hispanic, 5.5% Black
III. Market Assessment
Brooks is overwhelmingly favored on Polymarket, but I think he is vastly overpriced and locked into a much more competitive race than this market suggests.
IV. History
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court mandated an entirely new map ahead of the midterms, and it sent what we knew of the existing seats flying. The boundaries currently marking off PA-7 contained multiple House seats on the old map, so there is no steady comparison with which to measure the swing of our only midterm example with Trump in office.
Wild, whom Mackenzie ousted last time around, won PA-7 by a solid 10 points in 2018, just two years after Trump carried the current boundaries by 3 points. With Biden riding Pennsylvania’s loose mail-in balloting standards to a narrow win of PA-7, Wild held it with the power of incumbency by 3.8%. In what should have been a GOP pickup in 2022, Wild ran a strong campaign and held the seat by 2 points - with just 1.8% slippage to the right. It took Trump on the ticket and carrying bellwether Northampton to finally dislodge Wild:
Mackenzie margin was a mere point, with just 4,062 votes separating the two candidates. In summary, the 2018 presidential to midterm swing was severe, but incumbents in PA-7 are tough. Mackenzie’s effective strength, given that he had to get through an incumbent himself, may play stronger than the single point the 2024 results show.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Mackenzie ran unopposed for renomination, and has no GOP drama to deal with. Brooks has had a bit of trouble with the Democrat field trying to paint him as a conservative because of previous pro-gun statements and swipes against cultural rot liberals enjoy, but I think this helps him in a Trumpy district and causes him no real harm. Brooks won with a plurality over a crowded field:
Brooks has some family drama related to lawsuits, and Mackenzie has worked to throw it in his face. I’m not sure they’re going to register in this day and age, where everything is deemed an outrage. My view here is that Brooks will have no real issue consolidating his party base.
VI. Polls
The two polls below were hosted by The New York Times:
The polls show lots of undecided voters, with Brooks averaging +4.5%.
VII. Media Ratings
Inside Elections is sitting this one out (so far), and the other three reviewers consider PA-7 to be leaning for Brooks.
VIII. Party Registration
The registration data for PA-7 is positive for the GOP, and only confirms what I’ve long thought - that recent registration gains for the Democrats in Pennsylvania are artificial and confined to urban areas.
Potemkin Pennsylvania Can’t Hide Reality
Author’s Note: Today’s article is written in memory of my father, Lt. Colonel (U.S. Army, Retired) Donald Keshel, who left this life on September 7, 2010.
This district sits roughly a half point to the right of its 2024 registration index, suggesting the Trump working-class realignment of the Midwest is staying largely intact despite a Democrat midterm headwind blowing across the region. These gains do not mean that Mackenzie will hold the seat, but they do have long-term implications as a positive sign for the Republican Party in the region.
IX. Election Considerations
I am carrying forward the assessment I wrote for PA-8 and PA-10 with regard to election integrity:
Read my book, The American War on Election Corruption, if you’d like to understand the major impacts to Pennsylvania’s elections caused by the introduction of mass mail-in voting. It’s not crackpot stuff; Pennsylvania’s elections are now more about ballot collection than they are about vote getting. The registration numbers shown above suggest Democrats, particularly with the area stagnant in population growth, should be incapable of gaining votes cycle after cycle, but they still manage to compete.
Pennsylvania has some of the worst elections in America. Read my 2024 election compendium to understand the stakes and why this is a potentially huge boost for Cognetti if the race is tight:
X. Summary and Election Estimate
I’ve heard from some of my sources that they don’t like PA-7 for a Mackenzie hold this year and call it “DOA.” They even think Scott Perry has a better chance to hold PA-10 as a wily veteran than Mackenzie, the rookie, does to hold PA-7. I disagree with them, think PA-10 is ripe for Democrats, and think Mackenzie has better odds of winning than Perry does.
Hispanics represent a large portion of the electorate and many are starting to think they’re going to stay strong for the Republicans and surprise everyone. The voter registration gains don’t hurt, and incumbents have proven tough to move in this district. Wild only dropped 1.8% of margin in the 2022 GOP House popular vote win, and then 3 points from there when Trump forced Mackenzie over the finish line. Therefore, if Mackenzie loses the seat, I don’t think he’s going to do so by a lot.
The race is going to be won or lost in the purple precincts cutting right across Lehigh and Northampton Counties:
Here is how my decision matrix for PA-7 shakes out:
Brooks has outpaced Mackenzie for fundraising lately, but trails overall and has less cash on hand. He takes 3 of 5 key factors and has a notable edge in that it is difficult to keep a president’s full coalition together in a midterm year - which is a must in a district Trump carried by just 3.3%.
Forecast for PA-7 U.S. House
This is going to be a tough hold, but I think it is a more defensible seat than PA-10 this year given the trends of the voter bases and the fact that Perry could barely hold on in a Trump statewide win. If Republicans can hold PA-8, they give themselves a shot at a House majority. If they can pull it off in PA-7, then they’re right there on the putting green.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Captain K’s Corner is a Polymarket partner newsletter.