Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. This forecast/prediction contains proprietary mapping data beyond the paywall information prepared by the author for analytical purposes.
I am doing a Substack live for paid subscribers today at 6:30 PM EST.
I. The Race
Jennifer Kiggans (Republican) is a Navy veteran, former nurse practitioner and state senator, and incumbent U.S. House representative of VA-2. She is seeking a third term, having first won the seat during the 2022 Republican House victory.
Elaine Luria (Democrat) is likewise a Navy veteran (retired); she won the VA-2 seat in the 2018 Democrat House wave and was reelected in 2020, but dropped it to Kiggans in 2022. She is back for a rematch and is looking to chip away at a very Trump-hesitant electorate in an area that has been drifting left for a decade.
II. District Geography
Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District (VA-2) runs along the border with North Carolina and extends onto the Delmarva Peninsula, spanning 8 counties and independent cities - of which Virginia Beach is the most populated and significant. The Tidewater Region is a major military hub, which keeps it from running too far left like most of Virginia’s urban areas have done in the past two decades.
Kiggans is one of the few Republicans still holding on in anti-MAGA districts. Large stretches of “Trump hesitant” precincts are present in Virginia Beach and Suffolk City, and the Democrats have a large minority population from which to pull large margins. Here are the last three presidential margins in the district:
Trump won the current boundaries by +6.4% in 2016, carrying even Virginia Beach (but only with a plurality). When Biden flipped it (Virginia Beach specifically) in 2020, it was the first presidential win of Virginia Beach since Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 national landslide. Trump made marginal improvement in the city 2024, but still failed to carry it. With that shift in margin in the largest jurisdiction in VA-2, the district has become a heavy lift. Although he carried the district by less than a point, Trump ran 3.1% behind Kiggans, who won reelection on the same ticket.
Key Statistics
58.7% White, 22.0% Black, 7.5% Hispanic
92.6% Urban, 7.4% Rural
III. Market Assessment
Luria is the clear favorite according to Polymarket bettors, and is heavily overpriced.
IV. History
While the boundaries of VA-2 have changed, Virginia Beach remains the leverage point. In 2016, running for an open seat, Republican Scott Taylor decimated his Democrat opponent by a +22.8% margin. Facing Luria two years later, VA-2 then swung an incredible 25 points, giving Luria the upset win:
The classic 2016 to 2018 warning light had been flashing, with Trump underperforming Taylor by 16.4% in the district. The anti-Trump nature of VA-2 voters was evident, and enthusiastically proclaimed in 2018 along with many other suburban districts Trump had won by less-than-usual margins two years earlier.
In a 2020 rematch, Luria held off Taylor by a margin of +5.8%. Her luck ran out as the swingy voters of the newly redrawn district swung with the national pendulum:
Kiggans carried the seat by +3.4%, and held on by a similar margin alongside Trump’s narrow win in the district against Missy Cotter Smasal.
VA-2’s recent history is one that features consistent swings on the political pendulum, driven largely by what is going on in Virginia Beach.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
Kiggans faced no opponent for the GOP nomination.
Luria steamrolled her competition on the first step of her journey to return to Congress: