Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File. This forecast/prediction contains propriety mapping data beyond the paywall information prepared by the author for analytical purposes.
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I. The Race
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democrat) is running for a third term representing WA-3. She took the open seat as the underdog in the 2022 midterms against lighting rod Joe Kent in a razor-close race, and beat him again in 2024 by a wider margin. Before running for Congress, she operated an auto repair shop with her husband, so she isn’t a lifelong politician and makes sure everyone knows that.
John Braun (Republican) is the Washington State Senate minority leader, a business executive, and a retired Navy Captain seeking election to Congress for the first time.
II. District Geography
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District (WA-3) occupies the far southwestern corner of the state, and is primarily influenced by Clark County, which contains Vancouver and many smaller cities and towns situated directly across the Columbia River from Portland, Oregon. Rural counties Pacific, Wahkiakum, Cowlitz, Lewis, and Skamania make up the rest of the district, as well as a few precincts belonging to Thurston County in the north end of the map.
President Trump won the popular vote in this district (as currently drawn) all three times he ran, albeit by steadily declining margins as Democrats have mastered mail-in ballot collection over the years. It is one of just 13 districts nationwide won by Trump, but represented in Congress by a Democrat.
Presidential Margins:
Key Statistics
75.2% White, 11.0% Hispanic, 3.6% Asian
III. Market Assessment
Bettors on Polymarket widely expect Gluesenkamp Perez to win a third term in Congress against Braun.
IV. History
The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for WA-3 is listed at R+2, and the representatives for the districts have come from both parties. Jamie Herrera Beutler flipped the seat in 2010 and went on to be reelected five more times. She even held the race outside of five points in the 2018 House blue wave.
She’d still be there today if she didn’t turn into an avowed Trump hater, going so far as to vote against Trump in the sham impeachment proceedings after January 6 and helping lead the witch hunt over that issue in her final term. Her Trump Derangement Syndrome resulted in a vicious primary in 2022, which was won by Joe Kent (and Gluesenkamp Perez, given how Washington has jungle primaries), of recent notoriety surrounding the Iranian conflict and its ensuing fallout.
Kent barely edged Herrera Beutler out, setting up his contest for an open seat against Gluesenkamp Perez in 2022, the year the GOP retook the House. Kent lost it by an eyelash, certified after weeks of mail-in ballot curing:
Kent had no trouble with the 2024 primary field, once again earning the GOP nomination. This time, wearing the badge of incumbency, Gluesenkamp Perez won with a presidential turnout by a larger margin:
Essentially, this seat is in Democrat hands because Jamie Herrera Beutler had TDS and lost a challenge to a polarizing candidate who was unable to swing the moderate electorate of WA-3 and prevail in a mail-in balloting contest.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results