Author’s Note: Other 2026 forecasts can be found in the Central File.
I. The Races
U.S. Senate
Ashley Moody (Republican) was appointed to replace Marco Rubio in the United States Senate after he (Rubio) became Secretary of State under Trump 47. Moody had previously been Florida’s Attorney General, most recently winning her second term by +21.2% in 2022. She now faces a special election required by state law.
Angie Nixon (Democrat) is a DSA-aligned politician with three terms in the Florida House of Representatives. She shocked everyone by winning the Democrat nomination against Alexander Vindman in the August primary.
Governor
Byron Donalds (Republican) is the GOP nominee for governor after serving three terms in the U.S. House representing FL-19 (southwestern Florida). He is seeking to continue the reforms of Governor Ron DeSantis, under whom Florida has transformed into a powerful red state.
David Jolly (Democrat) is the latest former Republican to turn Democrat and seek the governorship, following Charlie Crist. Crist lost a close election to Rick Scott in 2014, and was absolutely annihilated by DeSantis in 2022. Strangely enough, Jolly served parts of two terms in the old FL-13, before being ousted by Crist in 2016.
II. State Profile
Most Captain K’s Corner readers remember Florida as an absolutely vital presidential swing state with a GOP-lean for statewide offices. Florida was so critical for Republican hopes that no GOP nominee for president made it to the White House without carrying Florida since 1924. Thanks to the rise of Donald Trump, and the governorship of Ron DeSantis, the days of Florida as a bellwether and swing state are long gone.
Florida is more than R+11% by registration, won by Trump at a margin of 13.1% in 2024, and receives new movers who are reported to be R+40% in their partisan disposition. Combined with the realignment of the Latino voting coalitions (primarily Venezuelan, Cuban, and Puerto Rican in Florida), the Sunshine State is a near-impenetrable red fortress. Republicans, unlike their timid counterparts in Texas, have been viciously attacking Democrat strongholds, and in several instances are turning them red.
Key Statistics
51.5% White, 26.5% Hispanic, 15.1% Black
III. Market Assessment
Polymarket bettors have better vibes about Moody’s campaign against Nixon, but Donalds is also heavily favored to win the governorship.
IV. History
U.S. Senate
Past statewide races and partisan trends are typically useful guides for races like these, but Florida has become so red, the distant past resembles another state entirely. The state hasn’t had two Democrat U.S. Senators serving simultaneously since Bob Graham and Bill Nelson served simultaneously from 2001 to 2005, when Graham retired. Mel Martinez (Republican) was elected in 2004 to replace Graham, but resigned before his term was over and was replaced by George LeMieux, who finished the term and gave way to Marco Rubio.
Rubio served until his appointment to Secretary of State, winning reelection on two more occasions. In that span, Nelson was ousted by Rick Scott in a 2018 upset. Since 2019, Florida has been represented by two Republicans in the U.S. Senate and has seen their reelection margins increase drastically.
Governor
Despite its swing state status, Florida has preferred Republican governors exclusively dating back to the end of the 20th century, when Jeb Bush was elected (1998). Bush was reelected in 2002, then gave way to Crist in 2006. Crist vacated the office in 2010 and was replaced by Scott, who won harrowing margins of +1.2% in 2010 and +1.1% in 2014 to keep the streak alive. Perhaps the most important gubernatorial win of the century occurred in 2018, when DeSantis defied the polling odds and inched past Andrew Gillum:
Florida was less than 33,000 Democrat votes away from electing a drug addict living a reckless lifestyle instead of the governor who turned them into the next Texas. DeSantis had been without hope until Trump endorsed his candidacy, and then overcame absolutely clueless polling to beat Gillum:
Since the modern Florida GOP made it out of the stormy waters, it has been smooth sailing.
V. Analysis of 2026 Primary Results
U.S. Senate
Moody took on a few primary challengers, but won her primary with 79.6% of the vote. The real primary drama took place over on the Democrat side, when Nixon stunned Vindman: