3 Reasons Why Ken Paxton Will Deliver a Texas-Sized Ass Whooping to John Cornyn
Paxton, a grassroots favorite, has destroyed his establishment foes in the past and will be backed by the President on his way to Washington, but this won't stop lobbyists from wasting their millions.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced his 2026 run for John Cornyn’s U.S. Senate seat yesterday. Paxton is a grassroots legend and has become a beloved figure since assuming his current office in 2015. Most MAGA diehards were disappointed when he was not offered a spot in the Trump 47 administration, but with yesterday’s news, it is most likely this Senate challenge was anticipated by President Trump.
Earlier this year, I provided a brief overview of the 2026 midterm races, and while the U.S. House poses an uphill climb for Republicans, the Senate provides an opportunity to expand the majority, and swapping out Cornyn for Paxton would be a welcome change for most in the Trump camp.
Cornyn’s Freedom Index score hovers at 62% lifetime over a Senate career spanning more than two decades; interestingly, Cornyn’s two worst Congresses were the two in which Trump was in office the first time around, 2017-18 and 2019-2020, when he posted 43% and 27% ratings, respectively – almost like he was trying to foil the Trump agenda as the senior U.S. Senator from the state most would consider King of the Republican States at the time.
I assume AG Paxton has the following three reasons among the most likely ones that align with his coming victory over Cornyn in the Republican Senate Primary next year.
I. Paxton Wins on the Issues
Paxton had my support at Texas v. Pennsylvania, the 2020 suit filed with the Supreme Court that alleged Pennsylvania’s miscarriage of its own election laws led to the disenfranchisement of Texas’s 38 electors. It was a brilliant case eventually joined by 20 other Attorneys General. Unfortunately, the Court decided not to hear the case, and it was dismissed.
AG Paxton is the most significant of major Republican officials at the statewide level to stick with his guns on the election integrity/election fraud issue, mincing not a single word when discussing it with Tucker Carlson, and going as far to make it a staple of an address to the Heritage Foundation in 2023. I recommend you watch that bold speech in full. Cornyn, on the other hand, saw no evidenceof anything wrong with the 2020 election, even when its fresh stench hung over the nation in November 2020 (most likely because he didn’t want to look for it).
Supporters of Paxton will also note his fierce defense of the unborn, 2nd Amendment Rights, and his pursuit of aggressive border security solutions. Like any good Texan, Paxton opposes federal overreach and put his money where his mouth is by launching over 50 suits at the Biden administration. In the U.S. Senate, he is likely to favor this same approach and respect the rights of the Texans who will have put him there.
II. He’s Beaten the Machine Before
While Texas may gush out Republican electoral votes (which it has done in every presidential election since 1980), Republican politics are fractured and recent Speakers of the House have been elected on the backs of Democrats, including the most recent outgoing Speaker, Dade Phelan.
Republican factions loyal to the Bush clan have done all they can to slow down real reforms in Texas that would dot the I’s and cross the T’s of a real conservative agenda and reverse the continuing decline of the state’s once-proud urban areas. The state was at the forefront of the border crisis under the Biden administration, and despite holding strong majorities and every major office in the state, Bush-aligned Republicans avoided aggressive strategies on the border that could have led to serious standoffs with the Biden regime and opted to wage war under its own roof, instead.
I’m referencing the attempt to remove AG Paxton from office with a sham impeachment trial in 2023. I recommend you read about what I believe are the true reasons behind the trial, which happened not long after Paxton called out Phelan for showing up shitfaced to work. In my article recounting the acquittal, I noted the following about Paxton’s rise:
Paxton isn’t perfect, but who is? He survived the biggest political witch hunt against an elected official not named Trump in recent memory. Trump likes to say, “all press is good press,” and depending on how it is handled, poor press can put the people on the side of the one being attacked. Observe how sympathetic the public has been to Trump’s own plight; likewise, with Paxton’s attackers being given full sunlight with which to proverbially hang themselves, another slice of veneer has come off the uniparty’s seemingly impenetrable fortress of thought control.
Second and third order effects from this acquittal have powerful impact. Paxton is now free to get to the business of unraveling election corruption to the furthest extent allowed, and this is sizable. Harris County, home to metro Houston, has disgusting and egregious violations of election law and incredible documentation of public corruption existing in all corners of the public space. Perhaps most importantly, with political persecution in common with the top dog, I think Paxton now sits atop the pile of potential United States Attorney General options for the potentially forthcoming Trump 47 administration. For now, Paxton’s services are needed to ensure Texas doesn’t become the next Georgia in the 2024 election.
While Paxton didn’t end up as Trump’s Attorney General, he did survive the acquittal to put himself in the driver’s seat for retiring a career politician that poorly represents the expanding MAGA base of Texas, which is now heavily Latino and ready for change – it’s no longer the same big money movers and shakers from the heart of Dallas, like those who lobbied him into prominence decades ago.
There’s also this, Paxton’s utter vanquishing of Dubya’s nephew George P. Bush in the 2022 primaries – and you can bet it is a major burr under the saddle for the Texas Republican machine:
III. Trump Will Back Paxton to the Gates of Hell
Someday soon, President Trump will enthusiastically take to Truth Social to announce his support for Attorney General Paxton, perhaps in all caps and most certainly reference Cornyn’s horrible voting record, acceptance of 2020 results, Ukraine-First approach to spending, and support for gun control legislation. As we know, Trump isn’t one to back sure losers, and with Paxton’s organic support from Texas grassroots, voters tired of the same old game in Washington, and the endorsement of a living legend, Paxton should cruise to victory in the Texas primaries.
You could have made the case, with single-digit margins in 2016 and 2020 (yea, right) in Texas, Trump’s endorsement may not pack the same punch as it would in say, West Virginia, but after taking Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024, it’s game on. Cornyn will have his support in Williamson, Collin, and other moderate, affluent counties, but Paxton will utterly annihilate him along the border, throughout the farmlands, in the exurbs, and perhaps even in the core urban areas, where he’s been a staunch fighter against Democrat-sponsored crime.
Conclusion
Ken Paxton is a safe bet for Texas’ next U.S. Senator and will rip through the primaries with the help of the Texas GOP grassroots, on his way to destroying whoever the Democrats put in front of him in November now that the Texas minority class has come awake to the Democrat agenda. Paxton will immediately become Texas’ best Senator, replacing Ted Cruz, who can’t figure out one day to the next which side of Conservative, Inc., he belongs on.
As soon as Paxton’s candidacy becomes an available bet on Polymarket, you should be bullish on him. With Paxton announced, that leaves Tim Walz of Minnesota, Kamala Harris’ failed VP pick, to announce next. Right now, there is an opportunity to make some good money on him announcing soon, which is more likely now that Paxton is in the hunt:
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
I will absolutely vote Paxton over Cornyn even though I hate to see him leave! I hope the next AG is from the same pit bull breed as Paxton.
God speed be with you, AG Paxton.