A Winning Movement Should Be on Offense

A New Mexico case study for the polling-obsessed as to why modern electoral math is overly complicated and prevents long-lasting dominance.

I value leaders with anticipation and foresight more than I do reactionary people who always assume a defensive posture. It is perhaps the most distinguishing feature of Republicans in Florida, in that they are beating down the doors of the blue strongholds and on offense instead of constantly trying not to “turn blue” like Texas Republicans had been for a solid decade before Trump converted the Latino voter base to MAGA. When Trump is gone, Texas may wind up back on defense.

I loved baseball long before I had interest in politics and election forecasting; therefore, many of my analogies consider things I’ve picked up from the baseball field. The greatest pitchers and hitters are always one step ahead of their opponents. The best hitters are the ones that know what the pitcher is going to throw in any count, where it will be located, and have the natural talent to put the barrel of the bat on the ball, accounting for spin, velocity, and movement in the hitting zone. The best pitchers know the hitter is thinking this way, and have the confidence to throw a different pitch when warranted to confuse the hitter. If you don’t like baseball, then perhaps you like hockey, a game in which Wayne Gretzky lauded the ability to “skate to where the puck is going.”

There are plenty of races on every ballot, and they are all important. We have bad mayors, city council members, and other office holders who got where they are because people didn’t bother to turn out in less dramatic elections. Still, the general lean of any state, where all trends originate from, is deduced from observing its presidential data. The polling industry is a giant grift designed to produce propaganda to suppress the other side, or give the sponsoring side something to post online about. As I’ve written previously, a percentage point in a Pennsylvania presidential election is worth about 70,000 votes. If Trump wins by two and the polls said the Democrat would win by two, they missed by almost 300,000 votes. That is not accurate.

Three types of races exist, in my opinion:

• Blowouts - not worth contesting if losing, or worrying about if winning

• Predictable, but possible - worth contesting in case of new developments

• Decisive races - the ones for all the marbles in which maximum effort must be exerted

In the last presidential race, we had states like Florida, Massachusetts, South Dakota, and Oregon standing in as blowouts for either side. Then we had the obvious states, such as Pennsylvania, Nevada, or Wisconsin, as decisive races, with the behaviors and efforts of both campaigns indicating agreement. The middle group, predictable races (which I called “leaners”) featured states like Virginia, Minnesota, and New Mexico, previewed here.

The latter state is the one receiving my focus today. After New Hampshire, it is the next most likely Republican presidential flip. I shared that thought with former Speaker Gingrich this week and said I would elaborate on the plan. It is essential for the MAGA coalition, particularly once Trump leaves office, to go on offense and keep the enemy chasing its tail. A defining strength of Trump’s campaigns was his competitiveness in the Rust Belt, which prevented Democrats from smothering second-tier battlegrounds like North Carolina because they were constantly worried about losing states they couldn’t win without. Now they’re having to defend Nevada, and soon, New Mexico.

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How to Win New Mexico

Read my review of the 2024 election in New Mexico before proceeding:

Trump finished 4.8% better off in New Mexico than he did in the highly corrupt 2020 election, largely on the strength of his improvements with the Latino working class spread throughout the state. Party registration was accurate as a statewide indicator, and also in 31 of 33 counties in predicting shift from 2020 to 2024:

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What Do I Mean By “Maxed Out?”