An Election 2025 Autopsy for Your Sanity and Understanding

The good, the bad, and the ugly over completely predictable off-year elections you’re definitely reading too far into.

Last night, patriots secured a dramatic victory in Mesa, Arizona, by ousting Harris-backing “Republican” Councilmember Julie Spilsbury in a recall election.

Other than that, well, uh… you know.

I made seven specific predictions for yesterday’s races in four states, which you can read about in Monday’s piece.

I hit on six of them:

• California Proposition 50

• New Jersey Governor

• New York City Mayor

• Virginia Governor

• Virginia Lieutenant Governor

• Virginia House of Delegates

I missed on the Virginia Attorney General race, which a lunatic Democrat who fantasizes about killing children won with relative ease after things appeared tight through half the count. It appears to me that response bias buried him lower in polling than he really was, and with such a poor performance at the top of the ticket by Winsome Earle-Sears, it wasn’t so hard for him to get over the top. I made note that I wasn’t feeling so confident about a layup win by incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, which most were describing as a silver lining against what was always certain to be a Democrat onslaught - at least in my book.

The purpose of this piece today is to bring understanding where there is outrage today, and to help you manage your expectations going forward. At this rate, I wonder if the MAGA base would expect to with a mayoral election in Washington, D.C., and meltdown over a 90% Democrat margin.

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Author’s Note: Any analysis of statistics is done with uncertified and incomplete results available on the morning of November 5, 2025:

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT NOVEMBER 2025 ELECTIONS

I. Expect Resistance

When I was a kid throwing a fit about my team not winning, my Dad would remind me, “the other side wants to win, too.” Nothing can be truer in an off-year environment one year after Trump won the 2024 elections. They have been chomping at the bit to get to the polls to register their animosity with the administration. Polling is less important than historical precedent, which carries great weight in my predictive analysis.

Once again: the President’s party is always at a disadvantage in off-year, midterm, or special elections. It has been true for every president in modern times, and it will be true for all future presidents. The party out of power bases its animosity for the other side based on who its President is; he is the most prominent political figure in the world, and in the case of Trump, one of the most famous people in world history. The Democrats hate his guts, and circle any opportunity to vote against him on the calendar like an underdog football team circles their date against the league juggernaut.