Last night, Rachel and I attended a candidate meet-and-greet at a home in Saddlebrooke, Arizona. Saddlebrooke is a community made up of several precincts that have been regressing from Republicans for a decade to the point they are essentially 50/50 tossups, especially in a tough 2026 campaign cycle. It was important, and the meeting’s location inside a miniature canyon prevented me from tracking last night’s primary results until we were on our way back toward Tucson.
When I finally looked around at the results of what I had anticipated would be a bland evening, I noticed the damage. Two Mamdani-endorsed candidates in New York City had pulled the AOC stunt and ousted sitting Congressmen:
NY-10: Brad Lander, formerly an elected NYC official, knocked off incumbent Congressman Dan Goldman by an astounding 31.8%.
NY-13: Radical socialist community organizer (where have we heard that title before?) Darializa Avila Chevalier, in a real stunner, beat Congressman Adriano Espaillat, head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, by 3.5%.
In an open race to nominate a Democrat in NY-7, Mamdani-backed Claire Valdez cruised to victory over her more ideologically balanced opponent, Antonio Reynoso by more than 20 points. All three of these seats are “safe” holds for Democrats, as described in my New York U.S. House overview last month:
Race for the House: New York Overview and Seat Ratings
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
Alright…so the results are that they are, and it’s time to go to bed, right?
Not so fast. As I scrolled, my feed was filled with sheer panic from talking heads, influencers, strategists, consultants, and just your average Joes who follow politics as a hobby.
It’s terrifying what they are becoming!
I can’t believe this has come to America!
Excuse me, but have we already forgotten what the “moderate” Democrats did to us? Do you remember when the Obama administration used the Internal Revenue Service to persecute conservative organizations, or when it was coordinating with cartels causing unrestrained chaos along our southern border (thanks, President Trump, for fixing the border all the whiners forget about). Yet here we are, acting like the Democrats are a necessary force for good now being pulled into extremism.
Let me tell you a story from the pages of history. Do you recognize this region?
Of course you do. That’s New England, where Susan Collins is the only Republican member of Congress out of 33 possible members (21 House members and 12 Senators). You may not recognize the dominant color (red) because it’s been a long time, but New England used to be overwhelmingly Republican. Massachusetts was always a bit of a struggle (the only state to back McGovern in 1972’s national landslide), but Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine were torch red for over a century.
The map above is George H.W. Bush’s 1988 performance, winning the electoral votes of New England 19 to 17. I picked 1988 to be free of the 1984 landslide dynamics; his margins were reduced everywhere, and Rhode Island and Massachusetts flipped from Reagan to Dukakis. Yet still, there he was in the third consecutive Republican presidential win still winning in New England. The only statewide presidential win of a New England state since then was Dubya’s narrow win of New Hampshire in 2000, which he promptly gave back four years later thanks to the opposition to the Iraq War in a very libertarian-minded state.
Now, New England is bluer than a Smurf’s ass. Why is that? It’s because the Republican Party is considered out of touch with modern day New England. It, despite its origins deeply rooted in religious freedom, is highly secular and more like Canada than it is Texas. Starting in the 1980s, the Republican brand came to be more associated with the Bible Belt and religious evangelical conservatism than it had been in the years in which it was dominant in the region. Densely congested cities and urban areas no longer viewed it, with its focus largely perceived to be on social issues and not on infrastructure, education, and socially liberal causes, as a political fit. It changed overnight with the formation of the modern “blue wall.”
Imagine this in reverse in light of last night’s New York primary results and you’ll feel better.
Sure, these new faces of the Democrat Party, future squad members, are toxic, anti-American, and grotesque in their beliefs (especially Avila Chevalier):
But what did you expect out of New York City? Charles Martel? I wrote about this last year when summarizing Mamdani’s rise:
My Most Heartfelt Sentiments about New York City and the Impending Mayoral Election
This is not a predictions post. Unless something bigger and more pressing happens this weekend, I plan to profile the races in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia on Monday. These will be looser predictions rather than the hard-and-fast variety you’re used to in which I can use hard data and historical facts and figures to peg precise margins.
Being upset that New York City isn’t going to suddenly reverse course and turn completely red, which is a decade-long process for an urban area at minimum (see Miami-Dade County), to elect Curtis Sliwa is about as ridiculous as expecting a German Shepherd to hop down from a meat wagon so he can eat the head of lettuce you’re holding.
Similarly, blaming Mamdani for being the impending doom of New York City is about as astute as blaming the last soda for putting a 500-pound man in the hospital.
There is no Republican infrastructure in place (no real challenge) to spur ideological balance and accountability to Democrats; therefore, it’s always Democrat versus Democrat, and with so much urban malaise, the outsiders (the radical “democratic socialists”) can attach blame to the establishment and seize power. It’s as simple as the theory of gravity, and massive segments of imported foreigners, white weirdos, and rainbow flag-obsessed whack jobs lap it right up.
Forget New York, Minneapolis, Seattle, and Los Angeles for a minute. They all fit the same profile. How do you think this lurch toward a more extreme ideology will play out in Lancaster, Altoona, Saginaw, Muskegon, Oshkosh, Sheboygan, Surprise, Casa Grande, Henderson, Macon, or Columbus? Let me give you a hint:
The most prominent shifts are those in the Rust Belt, Upper Midwest, and heavily Latino areas in Florida, Texas, and California. They were spurred on by the left’s continuing lurch toward legitimate socialism, the right’s turn away from outdated conservatism and toward pragmatic populism (problem solving). The only way to send those gains back is to revert to neoconservatism, making the left’s inevitable lurching less noticeable.
Now, with the left adopting new faces of the party that are so extreme in their most dominant hubs, there is cover for the right to push a bolder brand without even being the most shockingly radical option on the ballot. The Overton window has shifted in such a way that Americans now show majority support for deporting every illegal, believe election results cannot be trusted, and no longer wish to be used and abused as the world’s police force. Adopting and espousing those positions doesn’t even register as extreme because of the insane nut jobs on the left. Here is AOC’s office, since we are on the topic of nut jobs, which I photographed in March:
My readers are greatly opinionated, as you may expect from the political right. I’ve had people get mad or express their anger over a number of things, including my opinion that the Iran deal is a good thing to have done if we want to win the midterms. The topic of Israel is one of the most divisive in politics today, and how that country factors into one’s worldview generally determines their level of support (or non-support) for any foreign policy decision. It’s the same with last night’s primary results.
We have people on the right who are acting like a few nut jobs getting elected in New York City is going to bring about massive religious persecution in a country that has unparalleled religious freedoms. Meanwhile, Mamdani’s campaign was propelled by young, secular Jews more committed to socialism and political domination than they are anything else, and in Goldman’s case last night - he was beaten by a fellow Jew two to one. Those looking for online clicks are the ones spreading fear, when in reality - most people that don’t live on the Internet just want everyone to shut up, get along, and treat everyone the way they would want to be treated. My point in saying all of this (which will probably get people mad at me) is that a balanced ideology toward all nations and peoples will be the most palatable to the future electorate. If you are someone reading this who cannot stomach the views of the emerging left, then there is no sense in thinking they’ll revert. They were always extremists, but now they’re obvious. In short - wishing the Democrats would stop picking extreme candidates means you wish the Democrats would revert to 1990s “blue dog” viewpoints. If that happens, say goodbye to the modern GOP.
The emerging Democrat extremism also means Josh Shapiro is done as a presidential contender, and the GOP should hold Pennsylvania in 2028.
If you’re a Republican, Trump supporter, MAGA patriot, or a blend of everything in between, you should be thrilled over the Democrat primary results last night in New York. They are just the tip of the iceberg and they signal there is no coming back toward the middle for the party that has so badly damaged the minds of its grassroots youth that they accept nothing but the most extreme behaviors and positions that will be utterly rejected by those in middle America expected to pay for it and suffer under its impacts.
Celebrate! It is a great time to promote a Republican Party based on solutions and pragmatic populism as the Overton window continues to favor those who want to save this country - even at the sacrifice of some of our great cities that will need to learn the hard way.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Well said Seth. I think it can be categorized this way: the Left shifted the LOCAL "Overton Window" to the left while moving the NATIONAL Overton Window to the right.
Bravo, Cpt. K!!! Thank you most sincerely for insight and wisdom you possess in your writings. Whether you know it or not, you soothe my concerns of the happenings in our country and I actually feel better after reading each one. You are a blessing!
M. Kinkennon