Race for the House: New York Overview and Seat Ratings
Preliminary ratings for New York’s 26 House seats
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.
The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.
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INTRODUCTION
Unsurprisingly, New York’s U.S. House seats are heavily gerrymandered to give New York City much more power of the state’s delegation than it should have. This will remain the case despite the notable working-class minority shift toward President Trump in the 2024 election, as the five boroughs and the surrounding counties to the north still have plenty of white leftists to divide between boundary lines. Governor Kathy Hochul has already played gerrymandering games in recent years, and probably will again ahead of the 2028 cycle unless otherwise impeded by courts.
Here is my evaluation of New York’s 2024 presidential election:
Analysis
NEW YORK
NY-1: Nicholas LaLota (R), running for 3rd term, +10.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-2: Andrew Garbarino (R), running for 4th term, +19.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-5: Gregory Meeks (D), running for 16th term, +45.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-6: Grace Meng (D), running for 8th term, +23.1% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-7: Open seat, Nydia Velazquez (D) retiring, +56.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM
NY-8: Hakeem Jeffries (D), running for 8th term and to be House Speaker if Democrats win the majority, +50.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-9: Yvette Clark (D), running for 11th term, +48.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-10: Dan Goldman (D), running for 3rd term, +67.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R), running for 4th term, +28.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-12: Open seat, Jerrold Nadler (D) retiring, +61.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM
NY-13: Adriano Espaillat (D), running for 6th term, +67.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-14: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D), running for 5th term, +38.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-15: Ritchie Torres (D), running for 4th term, +55.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-16: George Latimer (D), running for 2nd term, +53.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-18: Pat Ryan (D), running for 4th term, +14.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-20: Paul Tonko (D), running for 10th term, +22.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-21: Open seat, Elise Stefanik (R) retiring, +24.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP
NY-22: John Mannion (D), running for 2nd term, +9.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-23: Nick Langworthy (R), running for 3rd term, +31.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-24: Claudia Tenney (R), running for 4th term, +31.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-25: Joseph Morelle (D), running for 6th term, +21.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NY-26: Tim Kennedy (D), running for 3rd term, +30.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE
NEW YORK SUMMARY
Democrat 16
Republican 6
Leaner 3 (NY-3, NY-4, NY-19)
Decisive 1 (NY-17)
Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on NY-17 (decisive), as well as NY-3, NY-4, and NY-19 (Democrat leaners). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Keep in mind that in a lot of the New York City Metropolitan area, a lot of the Democratic voters are Jewish. And many of them are sort of beginning to notice anti-Semitic demonstrations nearby. It might not make THAT much of a difference in 2026 but if it continues it will become far more definitive in later election years.
Also, several of the Democratic Reps are Jews themselves. If they are primaried, this could also create more cognitive dissonance and start to shatter things. Add to that, the loss of several House seats from the 2030 census and changes could be far greater.