August 2025 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds
My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.
Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this study, please see the March summary.
Last month’s report can be found here.
FLORIDA
Net shift since July: R+10,264
Florida’s Republican shift continues, and may reach R+10% by year’s end.
Duval County continues rightward registration trend, now within 10,000 of flipping Republican. This suggests positive trajectory in adjacent Georgia for GOP candidates and means Duval is by far the most important county in Florida to monitor for outside impacts.
Florida would produce a mid-double digits margin for either President Trump or Vice President Vance in an election held today and is ripe for redistricting now that Democrats can’t catch a single break.
IOWA
Net shift since July: R+737
Another steady month with Republican gains, which will be essential for holding down two critical GOP U.S. House seats next fall.
Iowa’s continued GOP lean portends good outcomes for Wisconsin, which trends with Iowa.
Iowa is no longer competitive at the presidential level and should also be out of reach for Democrats in other statewide races by now.
PENNSYLVANIA
Net shift since July: R+569
I track the total voter roll in Pennsylvania so I can get continuity going back two decades. The shift is slightly in favor the GOP from last month.
The big news is that active voter roll sits at only D+0.7% (+59,135), putting the GOP in almost certain position to lead in active registrations by 2028. The key blue collar bellwethers, Erie and Northampton Counties, continue on a Republican trajectory.
In a fair election under these numbers, President Trump would likely carry Pennsylvania by over 5 points; J.D. Vance would carry the state comfortably as well. Of note, Michigan (which does not register voters by party) mirrors Pennsylvania for the past 8 decades and is certainly on the same trajectory as found here.
NORTH CAROLINA
Net shift since July: R+2,108
North Carolina’s legacy southern Democrat voter registration advantage is almost completely gone, and already is when considering only active registrations.
Given the state’s tendency to elect Democrats in state-level races, the expansion of registration margins is critical for ensuring Republicans hold the Senate seat being vacated by Thom Tillis.
The next GOP presidential candidate, if these trends persist, should carry North Carolina by 5 or more points.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Net shift since May: R+513
The quarterly update from New Hampshire has Republicans reaching higher in the net voter registration advantage, despite both parties losing members thanks to roll purges. As a reminder, New Hampshire is the only state not operating Automatic Voter Registration that Kamala Harris carried.
New Hampshire is on track to be the closest state in the 2028 presidential election, and with continued gains, may see a GOP pickup of a Senate seat in 2026.
ARIZONA
Net shift since July: R+642
Arizona‘s official Secretary of State update dropped last month, but voter registration maintenance in Pinal County caused a stagnation in the voter registration index. I use real-time updates for Maricopa and Pima County to reflect monthly changes not listed on the periodic Secretary of State updates.
15 of 15 Arizona counties have a Republican registration lean since November 2024 as the state moves back into the reliably Republican category in presidential races.
Continued party registration dominance will make it difficult for Democrat statewide office holders to hold their positions next fall, despite the massively corrupted system of elections present in the state.
NEVADA
Net shift since July: D+1,551
Nevada is the only state in this battlegrounds listing showing Democrat movement, and it is important for the reader to understand why that is the case. Democrats had a net gain of 1,551 in July, pushing the state to D+0.2%, whereas it had a slight GOP registration advantage in the spring.
The GOP had a net gain of 57 between Clark and Washoe Counties, which contribute nearly 90% of the statewide vote together (gain of 89 in Clark, loss of 32 in Washoe). That means in the 15 outlying county equivalents, which voted overwhelmingly for Trump, the GOP losses were net 1,608.
Here are the notable purges of Republicans in overwhelmingly GOP counties: Elko, -727; Nye, -1,030, Pershing, -172.
Translation: Nevada’s overwhelmingly Republican counties are completing voter roll maintenance. If and when Clark and Washoe do the same, GOP gains should boom. If there were a true Democrat momentum shift in Nevada, you’d see it in Clark and Washoe first.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Captain K, you are the best!
Prescient design of today’s column, Seth. Florida at the top and Iowa below the fold, and the other states falling into place. Makes a kind of sign of the cross. Perfect reminder that Iowa and Florida came into the Union as Sister States (to maintain a balance of power in the senate).
Now, Florida has the Orange, and Iowa has the Greene Grass…as I see it, nowadays.
Are you saying, whoever gets the Republican nomination for governor is going to be elected in November of 2026?
We’ll borrow a page from Missouri (our beloved little sister state to the south) and SHOW YOU grassroots community organization!
We’re all getting on the same page now, sir.