Prescient design of today’s column, Seth. Florida at the top and Iowa below the fold, and the other states falling into place. Makes a kind of sign of the cross. Perfect reminder that Iowa and Florida came into the Union as Sister States (to maintain a balance of power in the senate).
Now, Florida has the Orange, and Iowa has the Greene Grass…as I see it, nowadays.
Are you saying, whoever gets the Republican nomination for governor is going to be elected in November of 2026?
We’ll borrow a page from Missouri (our beloved little sister state to the south) and SHOW YOU grassroots community organization!
I would seek your opinion / understanding of a question that has nagged the back of mind for some time.
Let me begin by laying out my understandings.
1. I am certain that you are telling the truth: people are making an effort to change political parties IN ORDER TO VOTE FOR THAT PARTY / CANDIDATE(S).
2. I am certain that IN ORDER TO VOTE DURING THE PRIMARY ELECTIONS, you must be a registered member of that party...although there are variations by State on this theme.
3. FEW people vote during the primaries. (imo, our greatest weakness as a society)
4. I am certain that during regular elections a citizen can vote FOR ANY CANDIDATE OF ANY PARTY.
MY QUESTION: why are people MAKING THE EFFORT TO CHANGE PARTIES when they will not vote in the primaries and have the liberty to vote in regular elections for their choice of any party??? (To my thinking, that would send a larger message to the D party if they stayed D and voted R.)
FULL DISCLOSURE: I myself made the effort to change from R to Independent because of how the R party denied my opportunity to vote in the CO primary in '16 AND because of their intentional MISHANDLING of the '20 election scam. I tend to vote for America's liberty restoration / conservative without being a libertarian.
Thank you in advance for sharing whatever insight you have gleaned about human nature in this matter.
In my experience, the things that change this the fastest are new transplants from out of state (see FL, AZ, NC for example) coming in and picking a party, and then to get registered for primaries in the 30 states that have closed primaries. People who have been around a long time in blue dog states that don’t vote in primaries may sit as D a long time (PA, KY, LA, WV, etc.).
I encourage people on the right to register as R and get involved in changing the R party for better. From the bottom up is the only way - see the Precinct Strategy.
A few things to note about Pennsylvania, for those who are interested:
1. According to a turnout model I developed for Pennsylvania, going into the 2024 election, on a turnout weighted basis, Republicans already had achieved a 110,000 vote margin over Democrats. Trump won by 120,000 votes (https://unrivaledpolitics.com/2025/03/16/swing-or-trajectory-the-shifting-political-landscape-of-pennsylvania-from-2020-to-2024/). However, so as not to be too self-congratulatory, my model ended up overpredicting the Republican turnout advantage by 60,000 votes (primarily due to overperformance among Democrats), implying that the turnout advantage contributed only 50,000 votes to Trump's margin of victory. The additional 70,000 vote margin either came from independents favoring Trump or from cross-party voting having netted out in favor of Trump (or a combination of the two).
2. Unlike previous gains by Republicans in closing the raw registration count advantage, which seems to have been driven by gains among new registrants or from individuals switching party affiliation, a lot of the gains since November 2024 seem to be coming from Democrats losing a larger number of registered voters than Republicans, with the counts dropping for both. This is almost surely due to Pennsylvania clearing ineligible voters from the voter rolls.
3. Therefore, it is not clear how this will affect the Republican's turnout-weighted advantage. It may not affect it all that much, since the deleted voters likely come from the low turnout propensity pool.
4. An interesting question someone might want to pursue is how many of these deleted voters were inactive before 2020, reactivated themselves by voting in 2020, and subsequently returned to being zombies, such that they are now finally being purged from the data? A material number of such termporarily resurrected zombies would certainly raise suspicions about what was going on in 2020, wouldn't it?
Captain K, you are the best!
Thanks Paul - I got your package the other day. Will give feedback as time allows!
Prescient design of today’s column, Seth. Florida at the top and Iowa below the fold, and the other states falling into place. Makes a kind of sign of the cross. Perfect reminder that Iowa and Florida came into the Union as Sister States (to maintain a balance of power in the senate).
Now, Florida has the Orange, and Iowa has the Greene Grass…as I see it, nowadays.
Are you saying, whoever gets the Republican nomination for governor is going to be elected in November of 2026?
We’ll borrow a page from Missouri (our beloved little sister state to the south) and SHOW YOU grassroots community organization!
We’re all getting on the same page now, sir.
The GOP should sweep all offices in FL and IA in 2026.
With that, Seth…now we’re cooking with grass. lol
I'm seeing a trend, and I like it!
I would seek your opinion / understanding of a question that has nagged the back of mind for some time.
Let me begin by laying out my understandings.
1. I am certain that you are telling the truth: people are making an effort to change political parties IN ORDER TO VOTE FOR THAT PARTY / CANDIDATE(S).
2. I am certain that IN ORDER TO VOTE DURING THE PRIMARY ELECTIONS, you must be a registered member of that party...although there are variations by State on this theme.
3. FEW people vote during the primaries. (imo, our greatest weakness as a society)
4. I am certain that during regular elections a citizen can vote FOR ANY CANDIDATE OF ANY PARTY.
MY QUESTION: why are people MAKING THE EFFORT TO CHANGE PARTIES when they will not vote in the primaries and have the liberty to vote in regular elections for their choice of any party??? (To my thinking, that would send a larger message to the D party if they stayed D and voted R.)
FULL DISCLOSURE: I myself made the effort to change from R to Independent because of how the R party denied my opportunity to vote in the CO primary in '16 AND because of their intentional MISHANDLING of the '20 election scam. I tend to vote for America's liberty restoration / conservative without being a libertarian.
Thank you in advance for sharing whatever insight you have gleaned about human nature in this matter.
In my experience, the things that change this the fastest are new transplants from out of state (see FL, AZ, NC for example) coming in and picking a party, and then to get registered for primaries in the 30 states that have closed primaries. People who have been around a long time in blue dog states that don’t vote in primaries may sit as D a long time (PA, KY, LA, WV, etc.).
I encourage people on the right to register as R and get involved in changing the R party for better. From the bottom up is the only way - see the Precinct Strategy.
A few things to note about Pennsylvania, for those who are interested:
1. According to a turnout model I developed for Pennsylvania, going into the 2024 election, on a turnout weighted basis, Republicans already had achieved a 110,000 vote margin over Democrats. Trump won by 120,000 votes (https://unrivaledpolitics.com/2025/03/16/swing-or-trajectory-the-shifting-political-landscape-of-pennsylvania-from-2020-to-2024/). However, so as not to be too self-congratulatory, my model ended up overpredicting the Republican turnout advantage by 60,000 votes (primarily due to overperformance among Democrats), implying that the turnout advantage contributed only 50,000 votes to Trump's margin of victory. The additional 70,000 vote margin either came from independents favoring Trump or from cross-party voting having netted out in favor of Trump (or a combination of the two).
2. Unlike previous gains by Republicans in closing the raw registration count advantage, which seems to have been driven by gains among new registrants or from individuals switching party affiliation, a lot of the gains since November 2024 seem to be coming from Democrats losing a larger number of registered voters than Republicans, with the counts dropping for both. This is almost surely due to Pennsylvania clearing ineligible voters from the voter rolls.
3. Therefore, it is not clear how this will affect the Republican's turnout-weighted advantage. It may not affect it all that much, since the deleted voters likely come from the low turnout propensity pool.
4. An interesting question someone might want to pursue is how many of these deleted voters were inactive before 2020, reactivated themselves by voting in 2020, and subsequently returned to being zombies, such that they are now finally being purged from the data? A material number of such termporarily resurrected zombies would certainly raise suspicions about what was going on in 2020, wouldn't it?
“Overperformance” among Dems - bet we know what that means.
Amazing work as usual!
Just wondering....have you any contacts with the omega4america fractal computing group?
I know Jay, but that’s about it.