Call Trump Daddy: On Harris's Ceiling and Simple Logic
Topic: Perspective
For all the talk about Joe Biden “winning” the 2020 presidential quasi-election by more than 7 million ballots, and a national popular margin of 4.5%, many lose sight of the fact that his decisive margin was a measly 42,918 ballots carefully dispersed over three states:
· Wisconsin +20,682
· Georgia +11,779
· Arizona +10,457
This could be boiled down to three counties – Dane, Fulton (or Gwinnett, Cobb, or DeKalb), Pima (or Maricopa) – meaning a little deterrence here, a little bit less early voting or ballot harvesting there, and perhaps a single evening to count, rather than a week, would have given Trump a deadlocked 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, and a shot at winning a contingent election in a House that unfortunately pulled out all the stops for the duration of his term in office to slow his agenda, all before anyone would have potentially mustered the courage to challenge Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, which would have given Trump an outright victory had he won just one in that scenario.
My point is – Biden’s “81 million votes” performance barely did the trick, with all semblances of order and fairness set aside, and widespread maladministration present from coast to coast, and with a legitimate political grievance against Donald Trump manufactured to shave his margins organically and drive out single issue voters who were convinced they themselves could have handled the Wuhan flu better than he did.
Now, despite the toplines of nearly every mainstream poll alluding to a Harris lead in the popular vote, it’s next to impossible to give her a clear edge in the battleground states. Just about every aggregator has her down in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and most recently, Pennsylvania, and clinging to microscopic leads in states that always overstate Democrats and understate Trump, like Michigan and Wisconsin. Morning Consult continues to show up weekly with a Harris +5 or +6 disaster that skews the national polling average and cancels out Rasmussen, Big Data Poll, Trafalgar, or Atlas, but even the crosstabs of the polling mafia shows a major erosion of Black support, Latino support, union support, with men of all types in general, and frequently a larger margin for Trump with men than Harris has with women. She’s not even a sure thing to do better with the only Democrat bread and butter demographics left – black women, single white women, and post-grads.
So, if Biden’s ceiling was +42,918 over three battlegrounds decided under third world circumstances within a perfect storm to hide them in, then what do you think Harris’s ceiling is? I’ve already issued my pessimistic forecasts, which carry forward the vote gains for both parties along basic trendlines into 2024, which is not necessarily likely given the expected decline in urban turnout and the fact that the lawfare option against Trump failed, leaving no recourse for a ballot boom.
In those pessimistic forecasts, Trump still wins:
· Arizona
In the same models, Harris can only edge Trump out in:
· Michigan
· Georgia
· Nevada
That means that Trump has an advantage of 275-263 in pessimistic modeling, which once again, isn’t likely modeling and is far to the left of voter registration modeling, which suggests much larger margins in the pessimistic wins I’ve afforded Trump and flips of the four states that she may be able to edge out with enough electile dysfunction present.
Harris at 263 could win with 273, 274, 279, or 282 electoral votes with any one of the states (presented in the same order) I’ve allotted to Trump in pessimistic forecasts. This is why I’ve been so vocal about ensuring a plan is in place to turn out all of rural North Carolina, particularly in the western portion of the state drowned out by Hurricane Helene and her aftermath. If everything must go hand in hand with a pre-issued narrative, North Carolina is the target to unravel a Trumpian electoral majority, especially with her campaign pushing out S.O.S. signals in the blue-collar states and party registration, plus Ruben Gallego’s unwillingness to mention Trump, signaling disaster for her in Arizona.
If it came down to North Carolina that pushed her over, it would have been a ceiling of perhaps 10,000 votes in one state that made the difference – even slimmer than Joe Biden’s 2020 coup. Now, here comes the logic part, with the express purpose of convincing any pessimists or doomers reading this page why the Harris internals are imploding, why her staffers are leaking signs of impending doom, and why Democrat Senate candidates are distancing from her.
What has Harris been doing since the end of July, when it became apparent she would be the nominee?
Hiding.
She thought she could run out the clock, benefit from the standard Democrat mainstays showing up to vote without being compelled to do so and let ABC News and others from the media carry her and her 90 IQ across the finish line. If you haven’t seen the highlight from last week of when her teleprompter failed at a rally, please watch this clip and ask yourself why exactly anyone sees her as fit to hold the most powerful office in the world, when it is questionable if she is even fit enough to man the reception desk at a junkyard (also, this is why public speakers should have several long jokes committed to memory).
Suddenly, Harris wants another debate with Trump, even though she was offered one on a network that would have been less obviously aligned against him more than a month in advance of her plea. She wants to go on The View, and she wants to pre-tape interviews with others willing to sit down with her. Most notably, with a large portion of Appalachia and the southeast underwater, she wants to go on the podcast Call Her Daddy.
For the curious, here is a list of their most popular episodes.
Can you imagine the press coverage if Donald Trump sat down for a show like this, perhaps with a male counterpart? Trump is busy giving his interview time to people like Dave Ramsey, visiting devastated regions of the country, and dodging bullets, and people have the gall to question his fitness for the White House? His opponent is going on shows that specialize on the topics of blowjobs and sex toys.
So, if I think Harris has a ceiling of what is likely no more than 279 electoral votes, regardless of what the popular vote shakes out at, and she herself classifies her campaign with Tim Walz as an “underdog” campaign – then why would anyone buy garbage polling suggesting a popular vote margin nearly as wide as Barack Obama’s in 2008? I made the point a couple days ago that her campaign’s sudden change in strategy and its urgency to get in front of cameras after months of hiding from them is not the behavior of a winning team, not any more than we would expect a team that struggles to throw the football and protect the passer to stop its running game that was busy running the ball down the opposition’s throat in the fourth quarter with a ten point lead, just so they could start airing it out downfield.
The swing state polling, registration modeling, early ballot requests and returns (which have now turned against her in Pennsylvania as of this morning), public reaction to the failed federal disaster response, and Harris’s sudden emergence from the shadows most certainly do not align with any of the biased polling and modeling showing her to be an electoral dynamo, and it is very important that you all remember to refute any and all narratives suggesting otherwise. It is Donald Trump, on the other hand, who is going to deep blue territory for a rally this week, presumably for southern California House seats, but maybe for a popular vote push and to reverse these persistent narratives that the people want four more years of what this tone deaf, disastrous Vice President has helped bring to this country.
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND FORM YOUR OWN CONCLUSIONS.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Capt, you are so kind and generous to give Kamala an IQ of 90!
Great great article! Thanks so much Seth!