Captain K’s News and Notes, 8/15/2026
Around the horn with news and updates as we reach the midway point of August
I. Captain K Featured at Restoration News
Restoration of America, an outstanding pro-Christian conservative organization, featured me recently in an interview with Hayden Ludwig. We reviewed the lay of the land with regard to the coming midterms:
This interview is straight to the point and easy to pass along to family members who don’t read Substack or traditional social media. Here’s an excerpt:
Ludwig: Recent polling suggests Democrats’ lead is slipping. By one count, if Democrats don’t enter Election Day with at least a D+4 lead they’re likely to fall short of a majority. Is that an accurate read?
Keshel: The generic ballot is less important than it’s ever been. It’s a lot like the Electoral College—analysts aren’t confident a Democrat is guaranteed to win even with a D+5 margin in the popular vote. If control of the House comes down to the 10 percent of House seats in play like I believe it will, Democrats will probably need at least a D+5 popular vote margin to feel confident they have a House majority in the bag. But they’ll need to take down a lot of Republican incumbents, which makes their task even harder.
If you’re looking for organizations to support and have soured on your mainstays, Restoration of America is a great one.
II. Rachel Updates
On August 1, I plugged my better half’s campaign:
One Last Run
Over the past three years, I’ve had a front row seat to the daily ins and outs of the Arizona legislature under a Democrat governor who won’t sign any meaningful legislation. That GOP majority, as frustrating as it can be sometimes, is all that stands between an Arizona promising to turn into the next Florida (given enough time) and an Arizona threaten…
Thanks to your generosity, Rachel raised over $3,000 within 48 hours of that article’s publication. Arizona’s 17th Legislative District, which Rachel has represented for four sessions in the State House, is one of the most coveted Democrat targets in the state, and one in which they peeled off a GOP-held seat in November 2024 (each Arizona legislative district has two seats in the House). Now they are eye-balling the open Senate seat and trying to take over Rachel’s House seat to make it a clean sweep. This is the radical left-winger they’re trying to seat, who is conveniently disguised as a moderate military veteran:
Intersection signs are going up in the next couple weeks in the most crucial areas of the district, and in a month we will find ourselves on final approach to the mail-in balloting season, which kicks off in about 7 weeks. Every bit helps, and if you are willing to pitch in a few bucks, we would be extremely thankful. You can do that at donatetorachel.com or, if you hate the internet, you can send a check to “Rachel Keshel for Arizona” at P.O. Box 1283, Cortaro, AZ 85652.
The Arizona legislative majorities remaining in Republican hands is the only viable insurance to hold against a potential Hobbs reelection win (or “win”).
III. Mapping Project Underway
I own data from every key battleground state and am capable of making proprietary maps for local groups to know and prioritize key precincts based on goals - for instance, the goal in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, is to prevent it from drifting left from its mid-double digits pro-GOP benchmarks. The goal in Norfolk, Virginia, on the other hand, is to get a foothold in receptive precincts and tighten up margins. Of course, I’ve been mapping entire Districts (federal, state, or local), as well:
I Have A Winning Strategy for Local Races - And Here’s the Proof
As I was drowning in the negativity of last week’s election results and preparing to write them up, I received a message in my inbox - BIG Win.
Please email me at skeshel@protonmail.com if you have a county in mind (or want to help sponsor one of the 24 decisive U.S. House districts). Please keep in mind, this is not cheap. Nothing good or worth using is or should be, but it comes from top-notch data analysis, a professional mapping service, and an innate ability to read trend lines rather than artificial polling data.
IV. Substack Live with Larry Schweikart, 8/16/2026
Tomorrow, starting at 7 p.m. EST, I’ll be doing a Substack Live with the great historian and author Larry Schweikart as my guest. Larry is a believer in analyzing voter registration by party rather than living and dying by the polls, and has authored many wonderful books that belong on your library shelves at home.
You can find us here when the time comes.
As always, thank you all very much for your continued support of Captain K’s Corner. I always seek to provide you with relevant and actionable information, but I will not stoop to any low to make sure I’m at the top of your mind as Earth spins along. I believe in accuracy and reliability more than being first, or being the loudest. I pledge to not engage in the non-stop drama that destroys movements.
Thank you for your work in saving the United States of America, and I encourage all to avoid mental valleys and the negativity that so easily seeps in if you let it. The fight for freedom is worth the cost, and those who love it will never let off the gas. Have a wonderful weekend!
Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Seth Keshel’s update makes the LD17 fight plain: Arizona Republicans cannot sleepwalk through a district Democrats are openly targeting. Rachel Keshel is defending a seat in one of the most contested legislative battlegrounds in the state, while Democrats try to package Holly Lyon as a moderate military veteran. But voters deserve the full picture, not the brochure version. If the opposition lane includes purple-hair politics, drag-show culture, and the usual left-wing “moderate” camouflage, then LD17 voters should ask what agenda would actually arrive in Phoenix.