Seth Keshel is one of the best election analysts out there because he looks beneath the headlines and works through the numbers that decide races. His House forecast gives Republicans a fighting chance without pretending the historical headwinds disappear. His Senate analysis forces readers to count the seats Democrats must actually win, rather than surrender to a generic national narrative. That discipline matters to Trump’s agenda and everyone working to preserve a Republican Congress. Don’t confuse confident television predictions with electoral arithmetic. Examine registration, participation, incumbency, and the individual contests. Keshel’s value is in making that arithmetic visible. Believe the numbers, and make the pundits explain theirs.
The only analysis I look at and regard as more accurate is yours Seth. I pay no attention to the lame stream media and their constant lies and propaganda. Keep up the good work.
I agree that polls are a traditional psyop of choice… but it feels like polymarket may be getting gamed. Is that even possible? I have no idea what kind of volume the trading is on these bets. Could politicians reasonably think of driving gambling odds as more economically effective marketing than ads which expose their desire to destroy the country they live in?
Seth Keshel is one of the best election analysts out there because he looks beneath the headlines and works through the numbers that decide races. His House forecast gives Republicans a fighting chance without pretending the historical headwinds disappear. His Senate analysis forces readers to count the seats Democrats must actually win, rather than surrender to a generic national narrative. That discipline matters to Trump’s agenda and everyone working to preserve a Republican Congress. Don’t confuse confident television predictions with electoral arithmetic. Examine registration, participation, incumbency, and the individual contests. Keshel’s value is in making that arithmetic visible. Believe the numbers, and make the pundits explain theirs.
The only analysis I look at and regard as more accurate is yours Seth. I pay no attention to the lame stream media and their constant lies and propaganda. Keep up the good work.
Data Republican is worth following. She gets into the weeds while never losing focus of the big picture like Captain K!
She's great on the data - and the big picture is Dems needing net +4 in a 53-47 Senate plus net +3 in a 218-214 House with 21 toss-ups. https://thetape2.substack.com/p/2026-us-midterm-elections-what-actually
I agree that polls are a traditional psyop of choice… but it feels like polymarket may be getting gamed. Is that even possible? I have no idea what kind of volume the trading is on these bets. Could politicians reasonably think of driving gambling odds as more economically effective marketing than ads which expose their desire to destroy the country they live in?