Get Your Minds Right for 2026 Midterms

Unrealistic expectations place you on uneven ground for responding to the unpredictable times we live in

I can already hear the internal monologues of some who will read this article:

“Why are you acting like midterms are already here?”

354 days separate us from Election Day 2026. About 300 separate us from election season, when ballots start flying in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and other places that treat ballots like wet wipes.

354 days ago, it was November 25, 2024, the day I announced how I would be evaluating the 2024 election from an election integrity standpoint. Almost three weeks had passed since Trump had been called the victor, and people were sharpshooting his cabinet choices and reverting to doomerism that is currently rampant on the political right. 354 days is a long way away, and at the same time, right around the corner and requiring substantial preparation.

A little research into off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey would have saved a lot of heartache last week. Republicans absolutely got smoked in Virginia, extending all the way down into previously red seats in the House of Delegates; however, 12 of 13 races for governor since 1977 have gone to the party not in the White House, and with federal jobs being cancelled and agencies shut down, this one was a no-brainer. Still, analysis of New Jersey and Virginia races continue to suggest what I’ve been reporting on for years - that Democrats have mastered not only ballot collection, but a stealthier way of doing it that stops it from being obvious at 11:30 p.m. on Election Night. For more on that, read here:

Two things can be true regarding last Tuesday:

• Republicans in certain states did not show up

• Democrats were still going to win despite their fortified margins, which require election reform to bring under control

In the same sense, two things can be true regarding 2026 midterms:

• President Trump can recover his approval rating

• Republicans can still get smoked

If you’re an older reader of this newsletter, Ronald Reagan’s journey should relate to our discussion today. In 1982, with a lingering recession underway, Reagan’s Gallup approval was 43% around the time of the midterms. That approval rating is about where a reasonable average of polls has Trump right now as we come out of the shutdown and look forward to his economic agenda taking root.

In 1982, Republicans lost:

• 26 net U.S. House seats (D+11.8% popular vote)

• 1 net U.S. Senate seat

• 7 net Governors

Those mired in doom and spreading messages of permanent doom for the MAGA coalition conveniently ignore that Reagan got things so squared away in a day and age with a much more volatile electorate to win 49 states in 1984. He would have won all 50 had his opponent, Walter Mondale, not held home field advantage in Minnesota, which Reagan dropped by a razor-thin margin. Reagan hadn’t even hit rock bottom by 1982 midterms - he landed a 35% approval rating in early 1983 before beginning his climb. Reagan’s 49-state landslide and stunning 63% approval rating should have been enough to make sure the GOP crushed Democrats around the nation in 1986, right?

Wrong.

In 1986, Republicans lost:

• 5 net U.S. House seats (D+9.9% popular vote)

• 8 net U.S. Senate seats

Scrolling around on X and reading people expecting to win the 2026 midterms without looking as far back as four decades ago troubles me to no end. I am not a member of the surrender caucus, but failing to properly evaluate the opposition leads us to failure no matter which way we slice it. Failing to observe the natural political winds, which blow against the president’s party in midterm, off-year, and special elections, leads us to contest the wrong seats, leave vulnerable seats undefended, and when considering the entire 435-seat slate, decreases odds of victory.

As of today, 354 days before Election Day, the odds of Republicans holding the House are low.