How Much Damage Has Mail-In Voting Done in a Quarter Century?

A statistical guide to the impacts of mail-in voting and why Democrats will make it their hill to die on.

It appears, based on his recent statements, that President Trump is likely to take executive action targeting mail-in ballots and perhaps other deficiencies and disenfranchising items present in the American system of elections. As a former intelligence officer, my mind moves immediately to thinking like how the enemy thinks, and in this case, those enemies will be representatives of states that run quasi-elections tainted by mail-in balloting, which is always accompanied by ballot harvesting (whether legal or not), pushed out to an ever-expanding list of registrations polluted by Automatic Voter Registration.

As soon as Trump’s order hits, the judge shopping will begin, if it hasn’t already, and rogue states will scream bloody murder over the Elections Clause of the U.S. Constitution, which reads as follows:

The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators.

The purpose of this post isn’t to discuss legal strategy. Plenty of lawyers working for the administration are far better equipped to win such a case than I; I am writing this to provide a reference point for just how badly mail-in balloting has impacted our country.

I chose the 2000 presidential election as the starting point for this study and conclude it with the 2024 presidential election. The American electorate was coming off of two terms of a Democrat president and, as expected, had a rightward lean, as it is the standard behavior of the electorate after eight years of either party in office to lean the other way at first opportunity.

In 2000, times were vastly different. Virginia and Colorado were take-it-the-bank Bush states, the former blue states in the Industrial Midwest now loyal to Trump weren’t in the picture, and Oregon and Washington were both considered likely battleground states rather than in the bag for Al Gore, as they are for any Democrat running today. Oregon was prepping to run the first-ever mail-in election by any state, and by the end of the decade, Colorado would start moving that way. We have now had seven presidential elections in the 21st century. The graphic below pinpoints how far all 50 states have swung in a quarter-century:

You read this newsletter for analysis, and you’re going to have plenty of it to do justice to the immense amount of damage voting by mail has caused our country. First, I need to make sure you know what you’re looking at.

Let’s use Alabama for the first example. In 2000, Bush (red) carried it by 14.9%; Trump (also red) carried it in 2024 by 30.5%, a margin 15.6% right (more Republican) of Bush.

In the sad case of Colorado, Bush (red) had carried it by 8.4% in 2000, only for Kamala Harris (blue) to carry it by 11.0% in 2024. The state has not only flipped over time but is now 19.4% left (more Democrat) of its 2000 result.

States highlighted in yellow practice Universal Mail-In Voting, in which a mail ballot is automatically sent to every registration on the rolls, whether it belongs to a living, breathing human being or not. All eight of these states are deluged with ballot harvesting, and Harris won 6 of 8 in 2024, 91 electoral votes to 12.

States highlighted in pink, according to my modeling, don’t have Universal Mail-In Voting, but still have excessive mail-in voting. For instance, Pennsylvania’s Act 77 (2019) made no-excuse mail-in balloting the law of the land.

Any states underlined and in italics operate Automatic Voter Registration, the biggest tell for a blue state there is:

Now, for your statistical enjoyment on the shifts from 2000 to 2024:

Which Party is Better Off?

26 of 50 states are more favorable to GOP presidential nominees today than in 2000.

14 Bush States that Flipped or Became Less Red

· Alaska, -17.9% - Mail-in heavy and features Automatic Voter-Registration, in addition to Ranked Choice Voting

· Arizona, -0.8% - Mail-in heavy, with roughly three-quarters of ballots cast by mail; known for corrupt elections since 2018. Rated for excessive mail-in voting.

· Colorado, -19.4% - Universal Mail-In Voting, Automatic Voter Registration, and a booming Denver metropolitan area flipped the state

· Georgia, -9.5% - Margins have diminished thanks to growth of metro Atlanta and moderation of white suburban voters; 2020 election was a Democrat presidential flip corrupted by mail-in balloting, but state does not meet threshold for excessive mail-in voting by law.

· Idaho, -3.0% - Margin loss here is statistical noise owing to massive population boom in Idaho making it impossible to run such high margins; Trump’s 2024 margin in raw votes was 330,274, compared to 198,300 for Bush in 2000.

· Kansas, -4.7% - Suburban sprawl and political corruption has flipped Johnson County, costing margin in eastern Kansas; however, Trump’s margin is larger than McCain’s from 2008.

· Montana, -5.2% - see Idaho description.

· Nebraska, -8.5% - Similar to Kansas, in that margin loss can be associated with GOP losses in metro Omaha, and to a lesser extent, Lincoln.

· Nevada, -0.5% - Population boom, Universal Mail-In Voting, and Automatic Voter Registration

· New Hampshire, -4.1% - Migration from Boston to Southern Maine; only full state Harris won without Automatic Voter Registration

· North Carolina, -9.6% - Republican margin loss in North Carolina presidential elections can be attributed to a massive population boom of more than 3 million since the 2000 census, turning the state into a much more urban and suburban state. Democrats have mastered the political craft in Mecklenburg and Wake Counties, including mail-ballot fraud in recent elections that made the 2020 race close and impacted a State Supreme Court seat in 2024.

· Texas, -7.6% - Margins are down because Bush received help from “favorite son” status running out of his home state, and because of the rapid urbanization of the state denting margins from primarily four large urban counties and their smaller suburban counterparts. The 2020 election was extremely corrupt and has been proven so by Ken Paxton’s prosecutions, but they were brought back to sanity in 2024 and the margin followed.

· Utah, -18.9% - Urbanization and Universal Mail-In Voting

· Virginia, -13.8% - Automatic Voter Registration and continued migration from northeastern states and government workers have flooded Northern Virginia and flipped the state

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16 Bush States that Became Redder Trump States: